Futurevision

In 1983 I was asked to launch a futures and options subsidiary for my bank, Bankers Trust. Don’t stop reading because you think I am using this as a launchpad for another boring discussion of derivative products and how I was the Robert Oppenheimer of banking who helped create the atomic bomb of the financial world. This little futures and options subsidiary was intentionally a separate legal entity that would have its own subsidiaries to hold our trading activities on the Chicago, New York, London, Singapore and other exchanges. It needed a name and I was into catchy names because I thought myself a creative guy. As we tossed around ideas, I hit on the name BT Futurevision. I thought it captured the essence of our activities in the forward markets and also gave notice to the world that we felt that futures and options would change the world of finance (which, by the way, it certainly has). Luckily, I kicked the idea around long enough that it dawned on me that the name might start to sound goofy and banking and goofy did not go well together. I named it BT Futures and that was that. As a side note, in 2000 when I started a venture capital company with some partners, we chose, at the behest of the Madison Avenue Madmen partner, Sam, the name B-2-B Ventures. After the 100th answered phone call saying, “B-2-B Ventures, how can I help you?”, I was real glad not to have seared “BT Futurevision, how can I help you?” into my brain those years ago (we changed the name to Beehive Ventures). Cute has no place in business…take that Facebook and Amazon!

The word Futurevison popped into my head again this morning for several reasons. I read a WAPO article about how Congress is coming to a tipping point where it’s effectiveness is becoming seriously compromised. This is a big story with several intersecting threads that should concern us all. let’s talk about the scale and shape of the problem first. More than one in eight current members of Congress have announced plans to retire or run for a different office. 13 senators and 56 House members as of mid-March, the second-highest total in the last century. This has set a modern record for announcing departures this far ahead of a major election, and represents the most Senate turnover since 2012.

Why is this happening? There are multiple reasons. Congress has become a miserable workplace. Republican strategist Doug Heye largely attributes the decline to the events of January 6, 2021, after which bipartisan relationships “fell apart.” Then came a 15-round vote for Speaker, a Speaker being deposed for no reason, and a three-week Speaker pro tem — all of which degraded the institution further. One departing Democrat, Rep. Jared Golden of Maine, put it bluntly: “I don’t fear losing. What has become apparent to me is that I now dread the prospect of winning. Simply put, what I could accomplish in this increasingly unproductive Congress pales in comparison to what I could do in that time as a husband, a father and a son.”

Republicans sense they’ll lose their majority. Democrats need to net just three seats to take control of the House. So far, 30 House Republicans are retiring compared with 21 Democrats — a classic warning sign. In 2018, a similar wave of 34 Republican retirements presaged losing 40 seats and the chamber.

Redistricting is forcing hands. Trump urged Texas to redraw its congressional districts mid-decade to gain Republican seats. California responded with a retaliatory redistricting measure. Four states have redrawn their maps, with four others considering it — leaving some members in districts they no longer recognize and no longer think they can win.

Trump-era tensions are driving some out. Republican retirements include Senators McConnell, Thom Tillis, and Joni Ernst — all of whom clashed at times with Trump’s vision of expanded executive power. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation effective January 5 came after a very public falling-out with Trump over his second-term agenda and the release of the Epstein files.

Generational change on the Democratic side is also part of the problem. Many older Democrats including Nancy Pelosi, Dick Durbin, Jeanne Shaheen, Jan Schakowsky, and others are opting to pass the torch to a younger generation. Pelosi is leaving after nearly 40 years. Former Majority Leader Steny Hoyer is also retiring at age 86.

Many are running for higher office, not just quitting. Of the departing House members, 11 are seeking a governorship and 14 are looking to make the jump to the Senate. Iowa, Texas, Illinois, Michigan, and other states have scrambled Senate and gubernatorial primaries as a result. It all adds to the crumbling of the power of Congress.

The political implications are enormous. Only eight of the 51 retiring House members represent truly competitive districts, which limits some of the direct electoral damage, but the departures still signal Republican anxiety about 2026. Democrats are calling it a “wave of Republicans quitting,” while Republicans insist they’re expanding the battlefield. The historical pattern is not encouraging for the party in power: a president whose party controls the House typically loses that chamber in the subsequent midterm cycle. Many of us have been hanging our political hats on such a reversal, while Trump is examining every means, including the breaking of whatever Constitutional norms remain, to hold onto power and not find his way into a third impeachment. While some of us would like nothing more than that outcome, any thoughtful American would seriously worry about the message all of this is sending to young Americans and the world, that the United States Congress has become a toothless lion and is simply no longer a check and balance against the power of the presidency.

This was my concern about the Futurevision that is forming around what kind of nation America is becoming. Where do we go from here? It’s like the question that is forming in the market’s collective mind these days. Where is the world economy going after the Iran War, call it what you will? The answer to both questions is that the Futurevision does not look sanguine. As Trump/Tehran threats have again escalated today, I’ll bet a dozen more Congressmen are rethinking their plans for another run at their office. I’m wondering if we will soon be changing our country’s name to something like Burkina Faso did to Muskina Besos… or maybe Trumpland Ununited. Perhaps something elegant and futuristic like Kingdomvision. We better think this through because our kids will be answering the phone with that name for a long time…