You Sunk My Battleship!
The war in Ukraine has had many interesting twists and turns, but none more so than yesterday’s sinking of the Russian Flag Battleship in the Black Sea, the Moskva. As all the news pundits have been saying, this was less a strategic military victory than a meaningful symbolic victory for Ukraine, who has claimed credit for the sinking. Naturally, Russia is denying that the ship was sunk by a Ukrainian missile attack, but was rather caused by some random onboard fire combined with an unfortunate storm. In either case, Russia either looks like a vulnerable and weak antagonist or a vulnerable and bumbling naval command that cannot manage their own assets. The Moskva takes its name from the Russian capital city and urban pride of Moscow and has been a shining star of the Russian fleet for forty-three years. Now it lays on the bottom of the Black Sea at a relatively shallow depth of about 50 feet. If I were the Russians, I might have preferred to see it sink in the middle of the Sea, where it could go down over a mile before hitting bottom.
I can imagine that there is already a plan being hatched in Kyiv that once the war is over, some funds will be allocated to deploy the international salvage rights such as to resurrect the Moskva from its watery but shallow grave and turn it into the Ukraine War for Independence Monument. Nothing could be more embarrassing for mother Russia than that and I’m sure all the Ukrainians who have lost family members and all their worldly belongings will gladly pay a tax to support the indignation of Russia after this horrific war ends.
Moscow has used the occasion of the sinking (despite their protestations that it was not sunk, but merely sank on its own) combined with the joint announcements by Finland and Sweden that they plan to join NATO within the next few weeks, to once again rattle the nuclear saber. Putin has now done that several times, but this time seems more telling. To begin with, a non-event like a Flag Battleship going down, coincided with a “leak” of a memo from Putin which declares that Russia should consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons to hold off the Ukrainian aggressors if they continue to be fed offensive weaponry by the U.S. and NATO allies. If you were in the Kremlin, would you ever think to risk your and your family’s well-being to leak such a memo? I think not. And the timing to coincide with the Moskva incident just seems a bit too convenient, don’t you think? But the real nuance here is the narrowed suggestion of the use of tactical nuclear weapons as opposed to strategic nuclear weapons or just plain old nuclear weapons.
If I were a Russian I would read that “leaked” message for what it is…a carefully worded message for the West and for the people of Russia (wanna bet it gets aired on Russian state broadcasts?) that says watch out, nuclear is still on the table, without driving more of the neutral or wannabe neutral world into the U.S./NATO camp once and for all. Use of strategic weapons would surely do just that. Suggesting simply nuclear weapons use without the modifier of tactical would rattle enough people that it would soon be Russia against the entire world.
And that is something Putin cannot risk. It shows us all that even the evil genius himself is genius enough to know that he cannot survive an all-out oil embargo by the entire world and that should the Russian people succeed in throwing him out of power, he would most certainly go on trial for grievous war crimes an atrocities against mankind as a whole for threatening the use of the dreaded nuclear arsenal. It is noteworthy that this all also coincides with new efforts by the Biden Administration to forge a lucrative Asian trade pact that specifically includes India while excluding China. What a great diplomatic tactic. Classic divide and conquer. First peal off India and a bunch of Asian countries, excluding China in a way that cuts into their Belt and Road Initiative and gives them more reasons to get onside with us and NATO. This is all geared to push the Russian oil and gas embargo to a far greater impact. Putin’s top economic advisor was recently quoted as saying the one thing that could cause the war to get called off by Russia was if the flow of funds from oil and gas sales dried up, there would be no choice but to withdraw. Given that China and India are currently the biggest buyers of Russian energy, narrowing the field to China is a sure fire way to get everyone’s attention. China certainly doesn’t want to have its regional economic dominance tested by the U.S. if it can avoid it. What gives them such strength is the regional view that they are the power stroke and that the U.S. is unlikely to interfere. Force that to not be the case and it might well force CHina to rethink its position of support for Russia. If not, just taking India off the table, since India is naturally suspicious of China anyway, given the history in Tibet and Nepal.
As I think about what Russia should have done rather than pretend that Ukraine did not sing the Moskva, I feel that the much smarter play was to play up the indignation that Ukrainian had sunk their battleship. I liken it to a bully who tells everyone that his bloody lip was just from a fall and not from getting socked by his smaller counterparty. Everyone knows the bully is lying and furthermore, they find themselves thinking that the bully is losing his grip on reality if he doesn’t think others understand that reality as well. Far better for the bully to yell bloody murder over getting socked and try to garner some support for the view that he has been unjustly attacked. No one is going to have much sympathy for a bloodied bully no matter what, but better for him to look brave enough to own it rather than delusional enough to deny that it was caused by the other guy.
It is also obvious that Russia needs to find a way to change the narrative about Ukraine. Just reinforcing their aerial attacks on Kyiv, as it is doing, suggesting that it is going after the munitions factories that make surface to sea missiles seems a very bad strategy. To begin with, it kind of debunks their own claims that Ukraine did not sink their battleship. If that was true, why would they be targeting the land to sea munitions factories? Furthermore, the indiscriminate aerial assaults on Ukrainian urban centers and the collateral damage to civilians, whether intentional or accidental, does nothing to add sympathy for Russia. Better to highlight the danger inflicted on 500 Moskva crewmen and officers and suffer whatever military supremacy loss of face that comes with it. Where were the Russians with their “You sunk my battleship!” Cries when they needed them?