The Next Generation
They say now that humans first appeared on earth some 300,000 years ago. They seem to have “scientifically” estimated that Adam and Eve came on the scene about 150,000 years ago (I have no idea how that calculation is even possible). The last ice age started about 12,000 years ago right after a comet of significant proportions hit the earth about 1,000 years prior. They say this was an extinction-level event that killed lots of mammalian species like the Wooly Mammoth. It also caused the human population to fall to about 5,000 -10,000 individuals. That was what you might call a close call for us all. If we use 12,000 years as the time we’ve been living in this rebirth of the human race, that represents about 48,000 generations that have existed before us in this cycle since generations are generally 25 years or so. They are a bit longer now, but were likely considerably shorter in pre-history. Speaking of history, that gets defined as when written record action began and archeologists say the oldest evidence of written records was in Egypt 3,200 years ago. So maybe we should say that there have been 13,000 generations that have come before us and been recorded in one way or another.
In the course of thinking this through, I have stumbled on the generally accepted prediction that we, as a race of mammals, are likely to last at most 7,800 years. I don’t think that takes into account issues like global climate change or interstellar cataclysms, but is calculated biologically based on the natural lifespan of similar species. Once again, I have no idea how they determine that since the unique aspects of the human race that give us the ability to outthink nature would seem to throw the logic into a cocked hat, but still, it is the best estimate learned minds have come up with. If that is in any way accurate, that would suggest that we are one third of the way through our natural species cycle, with more to come than what has been (or at least been recorded).
That all does not seem so terribly ominous to me. It is not hard for me to care about what becomes of my children and grandchildren. I suppose I should say that I care about my grandchildren’s ability to enjoy their grandchildren, but that still only takes me out four generations that I can possibly care about. Thinking in terms of 25,000+ generations from now and how they will be able to face the apocalypse is not exactly a top-of-mind concern. But I do worry about what those four generations I can identify, and certainly the next two generations are going to face.
Looking back, my grandparents were of the age that lived through WWI and the Great Depression. They all seemed to weather that challenge. My parents were of an age that they were confronted by WWII and the rise of Fascism around the world. That was accompanied by unspeakable cruelty like the Holocaust. It’s hard to say that they weren’t impacted by all that, but they too suffered through and came out the other end presumably stronger for it all. I suppose I could claim that I had to deal with Vietnam or the array of Gulf Wars, but the truth is that I think my Baby Boomer Generation has had it pretty good and has not had to face the difficulties either of the two prior generations have faced.
I suspect that the next generation will not be so lucky. In fact, on the assumption that my kids are in their twenties and thirties during this whole Trump debacle of a prior administration and possible (God help us) future administration, I think it is fair to say that they have already had to face a major challenge that has created a very real threat to their lives and wellbeing based on the ongoing debasing of democracy underway. I know we had to deal with Watergate and Nixon but the manner in which norms were observed and upheld in that time and circumstance bear little resemblance to what has gone on here over the past five years. The utter lack of concern for breaching norms and the general belief that getting a way with something is more a thing that is worthy of pride rather than scorn is a huge difference that bodes ill for our current state of play in this country and the world.
I believe we have all been struck by the image of Greta Thunberg, the young Swedish climate activist who took the global stage at age fifteen (she is now only eighteen). It reminded us that there are serious problems facing the next generation and probably several of the succeeding generations. They are starting off in a dire position vis-a-vis the climate and its quickly approaching point of no return. Even if you assume that autocracy and democracy flow in cycles, I think its fair to say that our children’s generation is due to face the brunt of the push for autocratic control of the world. Already we have China, Russia and Saudi Arabia in that position with Brazil only a step or two behind. The U.S. has had a scary brush with it during and directly following the Trump reign and unless we can nail the perpetrators of the clearly orchestrated Coup attempt on January 6th before the 2022 elections, we may be back in that soup all over again before we know it. It is a pitiful sight for those of us who took democracy for granted for so much of our lives to find ourselves facing its potential demise at the hands of those who wish to regain power at all costs and run the country for their exclusive benefit and the rest of the people be damned.
There was a time when I would have said that it is tragic that we have an end-game of a mere 7,800 years looming before us. Now I am not so sure that is the thing to be most concerned about. Long before we use up those 30,000 generations, we are facing far sooner existential threats to our species and our humanity. I am very much stuck on this 8 billion person world limitation even though I doubt that demographers have a perfect grip on worldwide human capacity to declare it a binding constraint. Nonetheless, an 8 billion person world simply does not work well under the type of autocracy that is rearing its head these days. That sort has a blatant disregard for those at the bottom of the food chain and is only concerned about the livelihood and lifestyle of the top echelon. The pattern of enfranchisement taking place in the U.S. as the best of autocratic tendency models are trying to actively discourage their involvement in governance. This is, regardless of what get said in public, an issue where the elite do not see value in including the bottom portion (indeed a growing portion and some time soon probably a majority counted at one person one vote). That will leave either a vast group of disadvantaged people in the backwater of the economy or it will require vast sums of welfare subsidy, which the current elite consider anathema and reference as signs of laziness and entitlement. Either way, we will trend towards a declining state of humanity and that has a logical breaking point.
So, the next generation has to face the climate conundrum and the autocracy nightmare at the same time. This is a great challenge for multiple generations to face, but the timing is such that it is probably on the shoulders of the next generation alone. I do not like being a Casandra, but I find these issues simply not fading or being minimized by creative or innovative solutions. Quite the opposite. Every day, it seems we are sliding further and further down the slippery slope of certainty that our children will be faced with this nasty set of existential realities. While that should not please any of us, all we can do is keep the faith that they will rise to the challenge. Go Next Generation!