Last night, while Iran was planning its second flight of ballistic missiles aimed at Israel (luckily mostly blunted by Iron Dome) and Benjamin Netanyahu was being the ultimate Middle East Hawk by orchestrating ground incursions into Lebanon to root out the bits of Hezbollah that they have not decimated over the last month and simultaneously threatening Iran with brisk retaliation for their direct missile assaults, we had the Vice Presidential debate. The contrast of the gentility of Tim Walz and J.D. Vance towards each other and the happenings around the world (even on Donald Trump’s Truth Social feed) were quite stark. These two guys fell all over one another to out “after you, Alfonse” one another. There are those (mostly on MSNBC) who were disappointed that Walz didn’t go for Vance’s throat on the great number of lies and evasions that Vance undertook, but others (notably the NYT) felt that it was a degree of civility by both sides that is more a return to the norms of the American political stage pre-Trump. The retort was that Vance was a Cheshire Cat who was being falsely genteel and that Walz was just too nervous (being far less experienced on the national debate stage) and was happy to be nice to Vance most of the time (he did land a few zingers in the final round). I see that the Financial Times felt that Vance won, but to no likely effect on the election. I, for one, felt that Walz did better than expected and won by a few points at most since Vance actually did OK and did explain the Trump position better than Trump has ever been able to do so. Bottom line is that after today, this debate is unlikely to be about Walz and Vance and far more about the key electoral issues. The debate did, indeed, cover most of those and I think they are worth laying out since we are only 33 days until the election.
Following the Times list:
Foreign Policy
With the tinder box in the Middle East, the droning on (nasty pun intended) in Ukraine, and the overall drift of the China monster towards a more and more anti-U.S. stance, there is little that matters more to Americans than how the next president deals with foreign policy. The recent report that declares the imminence of WWIII says it is less and less likely that we will be able to avoid a large-scale conflict and less certain that we will prevail. The bottom line is that I do not trust Donald Trump for one second to do the right thing and not to run like a scared toddler if he feels at all personally threatened. Walz called him too fickle, which is true, but is the most generous description one can make about Donald’s likely foreign policy handling. Iran doesn’t want Trump. Russia wants Trump. China is being coy and just wants America confused and weakened. And North Korea, despite Trump’s claim that they are gunning for him, probably wants to try dancing with him some more. None of the Axis of Evil really wants Harris, but being male despots with decidedly misogynistic tendencies, they probably all figure they can handle her when the time comes. I suspect they are VERY wrong on that. I will just use the phrase “A Woman Scorned” to remind you that the people I fear most in the world are a few women of strong backbone, but the people I trust the most to stay even-handed and do what’s right for the majority of people are women leaders like Kamala.
Immigration
Look, we all know we have a broken immigration system and that it needs a good bipartisan overhaul. It is important enough to enough Americans that it deserves serious attention and not BS tropes like “Build a Wall” or “Mass Deportation”. Those are not solutions, they are slogans to throw red meat to the uneducated hooligans among us. I thought Walz really nailed it when he said that we need to stop demonizing immigrants. They are the lifeblood of this and increasingly other democratic countries. We may eventually use AI and robotics to reduce our labor needs, but that will take a long time and meanwhile we need to get more new Americans productively positioned to succeed.
Economy
The evidence on Republican versus Democratic economic policy comes down to the difference between the economists Art Laffer and John Maynard Keynes. The first is now a joke of monstrous proportions and the latter is the most respected macroeconomist of the modern era. Nothing any Republican can say (or in the case of Trump and Vance….nothing they can lie about) changes the reality that for the general good of the economy, Democratic, middle class, opportunity-widening, consumer-oriented economic policy is far and away the best way for the world to progress towards the prosperity it is capable of achieving. Everything else (inflation, progressive tax policy or the wealth tax, the constraints of regulation, labor policy, etc.) are all talking points and refinements. You either believe in broadening opportunities and giving everyone a piece of the pie, or you believe in greed and the human factor of personal ambition as being what’s best for mankind (generally narrowly defined by these proponents). Harris’ program is the only economic policy that makes sense for the world at large. Trump’s makes sense for Trump.
Abortion
I’ve cheated and added this to the Times list, because I think it may end up being the key deciding factor in the election rightly or wrongly. I know how emotionally charged this issue can be and I am not prepared like I am with the economy or foreign policy to say there is an absolute right or wrong side here. But I think the polls are pretty clear that the American people strongly favor a woman’s right to choose and that the sanctity of what she does with her body needs to be kept as the province of her and her doctors. There’s not much more to say, but I think all the “spark of life” debate to determine the number of weeks are all angels on the head of a pin. You either believe women are equal to men or you don’t. I don’t. I actually think they are better and more reasonable on average than men.
Democracy
Republicans like to use the Bill of Rights like a cudgel to drive home their belief in democracy. Last night it was all about the first amendment (Vance) and a little about the second amendment (Walz). I look to what is being said behind the scenes and there is nothing more telling than the Republican endorsement of Viktor Orban to find the truth on this issue. Orban is decidedly and openly anti-democratic. Therefore, what Republicans seem to really feel is that they prefer autocracy to democracy, plain and simple. I vote for democracy and feel anything else is not only bad for mankind, but doomed to fail sooner rather than later.
We are down to the wire on this election. I am heading off for 10 days and by then we will really be up against it. I will vote as soon as California sends me my ballot. The easy part will be the candidates. The hard part will be the propositions. That seems telling to me. The politics is a matter of either seeing through the nonsense or not, and then the real work of governing (the props) is where the final final effort must take place.