Putin Everything in Place
This morning’s headline in the Financial Times is that Russia has come to an agreement with Bashar al-Assad\ of Syria and the Kurds to fight back against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey and its attempt to create a 20 mile-wide barrier between itself and Syria. This is all done by Turkey in the name of national security, presumably mostly against the Kurds, who have an historical habit of deciding which national borders are meaningful and which are not. Of course, the cynics among us think that the real reason for this action by Turkey is to create a vast no-man’s-land into which it can rightfully deposit all the unwanted refugees, namely those they deem to be a greater drain on Turkey than an economic benefit (a very hard determination to make when thinking long-term and with an open mind). This action overall raises many questions and thoughts that are vexing to say the least.
in fact,
I think it’s fair to say that the geopolitical landscape has me thoroughly confused. I know the the U.S. wants to withdraw wherever it can. Now that we are neither economically as driven by a desperate need for Mideast oil nor ideologically driven to defend democracy and human rights (Trump presumably considers all that just bad business…as though he could recognize good business from bad business), U.S. isolationism seems the order of the day. That is consistent with the nationalism fervor which has gripped us and others in the world. Perhaps I overthink these things, but I suspect that in short order someone will recognize how much that approach limits us economically.. Since economics wants to prevail over ideology now, that should at least draw some thought and attention from nationalists. The other confusion is about what Russia and China really want on the geopolitical stage. My best guess is that Russia wants to be a bigger stronger economy. As for China, big is not their concern, but having access to the resources for its huge population (even though its growth has long since peaked) is a driving need. That comes at the expense of surrounding states that don’t have the wherewithal or the long-term perspective to husband their own resources.
The biggest quandary I have is about the game plan that Russia has underway. The best I can tell, Putin is now a supporter of the Syrians, the Turks and the Kurds. Putin loves them all. And yet, he is probably rubbing his hands together like a little boy who gleefully tilts a box in which he has placed three beetles, just to watch them do battle with one another. This play gives Putin a firm anchor in the NATO chicken coop, while keeping him firmly rooted to the Arab Middle East, where he has influence all around Israel and solidly in the Arabian Peninsula. Where he does not have the upper hand, the economic talons of China are deeply imbedded in the flesh of all the recipients of the largess of the Chinese Belt and Road policy. Let China keep Iran and Afghanistan in tow (Russia certainly paid its price there over a decade), while Russia solidifies the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia is simply not a big enough or wealthy enough economy to use its economic muscle in so many places, but it does have that military technology that gives it more bang (literally) for the buck. Meanwhile, China has all that trade surplus cash to put to work strategically in the Middle Eastern region to expand its horizons to connect with all its strong economic interests across Africa. About the only place is Asia that neither Russia nor China seem to have a firm grip is India, and that’s a populated time-bomb waiting to figure out which way it will blow. I don’t worry about the world’s third-largest economy, Japan, because their xenophobic ways and low birth rate have set them up for Chinese domination at some point or another anyway.
Australia and New Zealand are neither big enough economically to worry about. They sell whatever they extract to the highest bidder, which is usually China, so I’m sure China feels there’s no need to own the cow if you get all its milk anyway.
With the U.S. moving more to withdrawal from the Middle East (save for Israel and strong, but questionably effective economic ties to Saudi Arabia), the territory is up for Russian and Chinese grabs. We have cozied up a bit to India and the diaspora does seem to prefer the U.S. now over UK/Europe, so that may be one strong foothold. As for the backyard of Latin America, it’s a mess for the U.S. right now. The Wall and the trash-talk pointed at Hispanic culture has all but alienated Central America. The Caribbean need only look to its sister Puerto Rico to get a sense of their chances of getting prosperous from U.S. involvement unless they have a desperate need for paper towels. The rest of South America is in neutral territory with condos in Miami and Malaga alike. The secret weapon to watch in South America is the influence of the Chinese and Japanese. If you assume they are eventually one and the same, Latin America may soon have more ties to Asia than to the U.S. Most Americans have no idea how large the Asian populations are in Latin America. I can’t say how loyal they are to their respective mother ships, but I suspect there is some natural affinity in that direction.
So America (defined as the U.S. and Canada and assuming Trump doesn’t screw up that natural alliance too badly) stands more alone that it can afford long term. That’s right, saving us this money short-term has a likely very high price down the road when we wake up to the expanded control of the world we, in our isolationist mindset, will have allowed Russia and China to take on.
I recall our old Chairman at Bankers Trust (RIP) saying, “Why would I want to sell something someone else wants to buy and why would I want to buy something someone else wants to sell.” That always struck me as a very clever way to justify doing nothing at all, but now I see more wisdom in it. Why would we want to avoid being a global policemen when it has served us so well for 75+ years, and especially when our biggest rivals are desperate to take on that role? I think Xi and Putin are “Putin everything in place’ for their goal of world domination, while we are shrinking into the shadows thanks to what Trump perceives is best for him and him alone.