Outvoting

Outvoting

Is it just me or is everyone more attentive to the primaries this year? Have I just awoken to this process this year where everyone else has been on this game while I was distracted with work or whatever? It’s not as though I haven’t voted before. I started with a vote for George McGovern in 1972 (I was just eighteen) and the rest is history. It was a miserable loss in both the popular vote (37.5% with one state carried plus DC….he didn’t even carry his home state of South Dakota). Here are my successive Presidential votes.

1972 – McGovern (D) – big loss

1976 – Carter (D) – a squeaker, but a win [incumbent beaten]

1980 – Reagan (R) – big win [incumbent beaten]

1984 – Reagan (R) – bigger win

1988 – Bush Sr. (R) – big win

1992 – Clinton (D) – solid win [incumbent beaten]

1996 – Clinton (D) – solid win

2000 – Gore (D) – tightest squeaker ever, but a loss nonetheless [won popular vote]

2004 – Kerry (D) – nice try loss

2008 – Obama (D) – solid win

2012 – Obama (D) – solid win

2016 – Clinton H. (D) – squeaker, but a loss [won popular vote by 3MM)

2020 – Unknown Democrat (Sanders, Biden or Bloomberg most likely)

Tally:

Wins – 8 Loss – 4

Dems – 10 (including 2020). Rep – 3. Never voted for a Rep that lost, voted for 4 losing Dems..

Most people start life as Democrats and then become Republicans as they get older. I, on the other hand began as a Democrat, became a pragmatist during the ‘80’s, stood up for integrity with Bush Senior (I supported him against Reagan, but stuck with Reagan when he won), and then found my true liberal and Democratic path. This track record can allow me to suggest that I vote the issues or the candidate rather than the party. And indeed, I have never been a registered party member of either or any party. But I’m afraid that with what I have seen from the Republican Party somewhat under Bush (W), but 100% under Trump, puts me in the position to say unequivocally that I could never see myself siding with Republicans on much of anything. To my way of thinking, they are uncaring of others and unsympathetic to the human condition. They like to say they are Libertarians. They like to say they are fiscally conservative and socially liberal, but the Republican Party has few redeeming aspects to my way of thinking and whatever possibility they may have had they have lost by standing behind a man like Trump, despite their constant desire to suggest that the “big picture” needs to be kept in mind. Well, to me, the big picture with Trump is close to 100% bad news for people and for the country long-term.

I have a confession to make. I have never voted in a primary before today in my life. In fact, my lack of political awareness made it news to me that you could vote in a primary if you weren’t a registered party member. I just assumed that was the way of the world. I now know that there are closed primaries, open primaries (only 14 states), semi-open primaries and semi-closed primaries. I’m not sure I’m enough of a political wonk to want to get into the details of party mechanics enough to understand the intricacies of the whole system. What I do know now is that as a resident of California (its only been two months, but that was enough to get registered to vote…thank you U.S. Postal Service), I was able to vote in my first primary today, and I wouldn’t have missed it.

Let me be clear, I would be happy with almost any of the Democratic candidates (probably not Tulsi Gabbard), but Bernie, Elizabeth, Mike, Joe, Pete, Amy, Tom were all good by me. However, what I find that I do care about more than I ever have by a long shot, is that whomever gets the Democratic nomination must have the highest probability of winning. That is everything to me. I so desperately need to see Trump sent packing that I find myself thinking like a political tactician, something I never thought I would do.

The dimensions for consideration are first and foremost how left versus centrist is the candidate. Bernie and Elizabeth left, Joe in the middle, Mike in the conservative lane. Gabbard is in the nut-job lane, so I choose to ignore her. I believe what we are seeing tonight as I watch the Super Tuesday results is that the Democratic Party does not seem ready to lean left altogether. But it does not want to lean right either, at least not so much in Mike’s direction. The liability of being the money-bags billionaire is hurting more than we all thought. The cover of The New Yorker Magazine this week with Mike holding a burning $100 bill with which he has lit an exploded prank cigar has been very telling.

I voted for Mike today. I fear it may have been a wasted vote from the way things are shaping up. I did think about voting for Joe on the theory that I didn’t want Bernie to get the benefit of the California primary quirk that gives none of the 144 statewide delegates to anyone who does not get over the 15% vote threshold. That felt bad to me. If the popular vote leans toward Bernie, I am prepared to get behind Bernie, as much as I dislike his abrasiveness towards any of the other candidates. In other words, if I believe Bernie can win and if the popular vote favors Bernie by a large margin, I am supportive of Bernie, wild-eyed looks and all.

A funny thing happened when I was given my ballot today and went over to my little privacy area. When I opened the folder and saw the overwhelmingly long list of candidates for President (the first name I saw was Buttigieg, who dropped out two days ago, but was still on the ballot), I realized I hadn’t yet decided who to cast my vote for. That was a momentary, but startling sensation to me. I got over it quickly and cast my vote in an almost visceral manner and it was for Mike Bloomberg. No tactical rethinking, just a vote for who I thought was the most capable candidate, and that was and is Mike. If I ranked them I would next rank Warren on the grounds of competence and then consider Bernie and Joe a toss-up for different reasons. I worry about Bernie being too radical to get anything done and getting frustrated enough to do things too radical even for me, much less the rest of the country. With Joe, the risk is that he his not up to the task due to age and bandwidth. In that case, it will be a function of his running mate and the team he builds around him. I guess I would rather take the later risk that the former risk.

I may be again over-thinking all of this and in so doing, perhaps outvoting myself unwittingly. I hope not. In the nine hours since I voted, I am inclined to think that the momentum is with Biden now, so I wish I had voted for him to keep the balance with Bernie more assured. The important thing remains that we have to get out the vote even if we end up outvoting ourselves.