There is one thing that Donald Trump is not and that is subtle. We often talk about politicians being so vague that they speak on and on without saying anything, and that is no accident. Being obtuse in a political skill that has its roots in survival instinct. Who doesn’t remember comedian and politician, Senator Al Franken of Minnesota being trolled and forced to resign his senate seat during the early days of the Me Too Movement for having a picture taken of him feigning a harmless boob grab of a sleeping colleague on some government-sponsored military flight. It was a typical National Lampoon (where Franken had trained as a comedy writer and performer) prank that had no malice of forethought, but was clearly rooted in the old world gender-biased humor of the 1970’s. That one innocent act (my interpretation of it) was enough in the moment to put a political stake through the heart of his senatorial career and he did the honorable and pro-partisan thing of stepping down. I actually think the act garnered him more respect with the broader public than it cost him. That act seems almost anachronistic those seven years ago as the world of American politics has become dominated by Donald Trump. The contrast in character between Trump and Franken could not be more stark. One is base and crude where the other is genuinely funny. One is despicable where the other is honorable. And one is so self-absorbed and entitled as to double-down on every faux pas (no mater how gross or extreme) with lies and denials where the other was immediately honest, accountable and contrite. It used to be that Americans demanded politicians to act like Franken, even when it was not in their nature, but today, the acceptance of the crassness and dishonesty by everyone, including the Supreme Court, is simply hard to fathom.
There are currently three major things that Trump is busy doing his double-down routine on. It’s hard to say which of the three is most potentially impactful, both on him and our country. They all have the potential for earth-shaking effect and are all equally the subject of his misunderstanding, lies, denial, obfuscation, and distraction in his not-so-subtle approach to handling the narrative of 2025.
The first is his tariff war. It’s one thing for liberal-minded economists or the New York Times to report how tariffs will hurt American consumers from higher costs and hurt the American (and global) economy by injecting uncertainty into global markets, thereby dampening GDP, but now the conservative Wall Street Journal is on the case. They are reporting clear flow-through data showing those exact impacts, even while columnist Marc Thiessen keeps singing Trump’s praises. I see Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street giants are reporting record trading profits. That’s not surprising, given that trading always thrives on volatility and volatility is driven by uncertainty. While that may sound good if you’re a GS shareholder, let’s understand that this zero-sum game is not something that grows the economy. Mostly, it takes coin out of the pockets of individuals and puts it into the hands of arbitragers. Trump is not only unapologetic about what his on-again, off-again trade war is going to global uncertainty and American credibility, he is relishing the limelight it puts him and him alone in. He is known to like chaos, and he actually seems to believe it gives him a negotiating edge…even though there is evidence to the contrary.
Trump is also using tariffs to help his old pals. He threatens a 50% tariff on Brazil while we actually have a trade surplus with Brazil. Trump cited the prosecution of former President Jair Bolsonaro — which he called a “witch hunt” — as part of the justification. Bolsonaro is currently facing charges for attempting to overturn the 2022 election and plotting to assassinate the president-elect…something Trump can relate to.
Trump announced 25% tariffs on Japan and Korea, and their stock markets went UP. Why? Because buried in the fine print are carve-outs for key sectors, and the real net increase in tariffs is from 15.5% to 16.6%. In other words, no one takes him seriously anymore. It’s performative. He’s been saying the same thing for months: threaten, delay, walk it back, threaten again. It’s the very basis of the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) trade.
The second thing Trump is doing similar “Jazz Hands” over is immigration. The electorate doesn’t like the ICE deportation methodology and certainly not the reality of what they are doing to solid immigrant families who add value to our economy. The economic impact to our GDP of what is happening on the immigration front is starting to move into first place in terms of its harm to the economy. More and more sectors, starting with farming and food processing and continuing on into hospitality are feeling the pinch. Estimates are circulating correlating number of deportees to GDP impact %. In addition, the harshness of Homeland Security Secretary Noem and her cadre of masked goons are increasingly being likened to 1930’s Gestapo tactics. The likeness is as comparable as it is disturbing to more and more people. So far, Trump is defending it all, but like with unpopular or ineffective tariff plays, he is also reversing course on individual details and decisions when someone he cares somewhat about screams too loud or the press convincingly gets traction about the stupidity or cruelty of some aspect of the juggernaut. Like Peter Navarro, Noem may well take the fall once Trump (or Steven Miller, the real string puller) needs an immigration scapegoat.
The new third thing that Trump is wanting people to look away from is the Epstein files. Much has been written about how upset many of the MAGA faithful (particularly those of the QAnon variety) are deeply upset with Trump’s attempts to quietly close out the Epstein case with less than full disclosure and transparency. But it doesn’t seem to be going away and Attorney General Pam Bondi seems to be joining Navarro and Noem on the hot seat. Between those three and Hegseth on the issues of Signalgate and now halting Ukrainian missiles when the electorate wants the U.S. to stand strong against Putin as he consistently and increasingly disrespects Trump, give Trump a 360 degree barrier to the pressures of the public and reality. It must be exhausting For him!
It’s getting hard for Trump to find anyone who doesn’t see the obvious truth of his deceit, his incompetence, his corruption, his indecency or his patent inability to accept accountability for anything. That is another way of saying that obviousness of Donald Trump is finally coming out into the open at long last and everyone, even his own acolytes, can see the naked truth. The emperor with no clothes has lost all his fig leaves.