The year I started working after business school, 1976, ABBA released their hit song, Money, Money, Money with the tag line, “It’s a rich man’s world.” I recently read that in the clamber to build out AI capabilities as quickly as possible, the expanding array of AI companies, ranging from the monster tech companies like Microsoft, Google and Meta, as well as the start-ups like Safe Superintelligence (SSI) that are popping up like mushrooms after a summer rain, are all chasing talent like never before. It’s noteworthy that SSI declined Meta’s bid for $32 Billion to acquire this 1 year old venture. I spent 45 years on Wall Street, so I didn’t think I could be easily shocked by large acquisition bids or big signing bonuses to high profile professionals, but this is getting crazy.
I know that several big athletes in the MLB and NFL (Juan Soto and Dak Prescott) got big sign-ons of $75 and $80 million recently, but that was for well-established name-brand players. Untested draft picks of the highest caliber have fetched $9-25 million. Well, it is said that rookie IA programmers are commanding as much as $100 million in sign-up bonus money (an amount recently paid to a 24-year old whiz kid). Think about that. I once paid a hedge fund manager $80 million for a stellar performance one year where we made $160 million on her fund, but note that was a contractual payout, not a preemptive sign-on for a rookie. The excitement about AI and how it will change the world is matched only by the speculation of how it will decimate the work force from robotic blue-collar folks to administrative middle-office white-collar workers. But AI is also being touted as replacing research and writing professionals like lawyers and analysts, diagnostic professionals like doctors and design professionals like architects and engineers. What’s left on the employment horizon? There are always things humans will think they can do better than AI, but show AI a problem or a task and chances are it can figure out how to do it better than a human eventually. The question I keep asking (rhetorically, I suppose) is what will all the people of the world do and how will they earn a living if AI and robotics do it all? Of course, people are always likely to find something to do and some way to survive, but survival is rarely pretty or satisfying for very long.
I see that the CEO of Ford, that icon of American industrialism and the brand of EV truck that I drive, has come right out at the Aspen Institute and said that fully 50% of the white collar jobs at Ford are at imminent risk of elimination. That may only be 20,000 jobs, but as a harbinger of the impact of AI on employment that is devastating. The economist in me is unable to fathom whether that efficiency will be an economic boost or that loss of middle class employment will undercut consumer demand so much that the economy will suffer. Who will buy the new Ford EV trucks if everyone is unemployed….even if they are busy retooling themselves? And that’s the next question. What are they precisely retooling themselves for? In the new AI-driven world, what jobs do we tell our grandkids they should pursue? It suggests that we may be ill-prepared to advise and assist our kids and can no longer drive them towards the lawyer, doctor, engineer paths. The butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker of the new age are hard for us oldsters to spot. Selling or flipping houses is unlikely to be a fallback if no one can afford a home any more.
I trust there are people who will find my concerns silly and will suggest that the world has always adjusted to change and will adapt once again…because it must. I have pondered the progression of industrial revolutions before and understand that we are currently in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (Industry 4.0), defined as Digital-Physical Integration: Cyber-physical systems that connect the digital and physical worlds, The Internet of Things (IoT): Connected devices and sensors sharing data, Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning: AI-driven automation and decision-making, Cloud Computing: Distributed computing and data storage, Big Data Analytics: Processing vast amounts of data for insights, Advanced Robotics: Smart, connected robotic systems and 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing: On-demand, customizable production. Wow, that’s a ton of change and we are already a dozen years into it and ready to shift into the next Industrial Revolution. Many organizations are still working to fully digitize their operations and integrate smart technologies before moving toward the more human-centric approaches envisioned in the fifth IR.
The Fifth Industrial Revolution incorporates concepts such as “sustainability,” “human-centeredness,” and “concern for the environment” in addition to the transformation of the industrial structure. Unlike Industry 4.0’s emphasis on efficiency and connectivity, Industry 5.0 prioritizes environmental responsibility and carbon-neutral production methods….or at least it did before the Trump administration changed course. The Fifth Industrial Revolution was supposed to represent a philosophical shift toward ensuring that technological progress serves humanity and the planet, rather than simply maximizing efficiency or replacing human workers. It’s unclear where that will go now.
There are indeed even emerging visions and concepts for a Sixth Industrial Revolution (Industry 6.0), though it’s still largely theoretical and in early conceptual stages. Industry 6.0 is predicted to take shape around 2050, building on the principles of industry 5.0, and it would take approximately 10 to 15 years to implement. It ‘s core characteristics are about complete technological integration. Things like brain-computer interfaces and advanced human-machine collaboration, and nuclear fusion energy integration. The sole aim of industry 6.0 is to seize the new technologies, and apply them worldwide to deliver wealth and prosperity away from the job and provide growth to nations across all planetary boundaries. Sounds more like a Superman comic than what we see happening in Washington and Venice. The Sixth Industrial Revolution was to represent humanity’s attempt to create a truly sustainable, intelligent, and harmonious relationship between technology, humans, and nature. Good luck with that.
And yes, there are also emerging theoretical concepts for a Seventh Industrial Revolution (IR 7.0), though these are highly speculative and primarily based on academic research projections. The main challenge, sure enough, lies in the comprehensive use of humanoids with a highly autonomous auto-regenerator of artificial intelligence, potentially replacing humans in production systems and manual jobs. As a result, the labor supply is expected to become highly specialized and limited to specific roles, emphasizing creativity, imagination, and social skills over memorization or complex problem analysis.
In the meantime, I think we had all better buckle-up for the inevitable old world versus new world battles. In many ways, the Trump/Musk battles we are now seeing are the opening salvo of just that. Trump is the old and Musk is the new and I suspect neither gives a shit about the human side of the equation. This is just another battle of the titans and guess what…it’s all about money, money, money. It is, after all, a rich man’s world …right up until it’s not.