Joe Versus the Volcano
Do you remember that 1990 Tom Hanks and Meg Ryan movie about the guy who is a hypochondriac and stuck in a mind-numbing job who decides to volunteer to throw himself into a volcano in order to save the world? It was a funny movie about how we can all learn to live by putting everything at risk. I have watched more politics over the last six or seven years than I have in my entire life. During the Obama presidency I was working with the federal government and got an earful every time I went to Washington DC about how ineffective Obama was as a president. I heard that from both Republicans and Democrats. His vice president, Joe Biden was more or less a nice guy non-event. When the 2016 election cycle rolled around, it was clear who the Democratic front-runner was and it was never Joe Biden. It was clear that he had an interest in rising to the top job, but it was equally clear that as much as Obama liked him as a pal and co-pilot, he was not prepared to support him for president. I was never a great fan of Hilary Clinton, but I also never thought she was the devil that she was made out to be. I had been told years previously by Vernon Jordan (who was on our board and who I spent a fair bit of time with) that Hilary was the smartest and most capable member of the Clinton family. When she was running against a wide Republican field of people including Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Donald Trump, I was of the view that she would have a fight on her hands, but that she would prevail and become our first woman president. Once Donald Trump won the nomination (much to my surprise) I was convinced that she would have a runaway win in the election. I was not alone, but we all underestimated the mood of the country and the ability of the American public to buy the Devil Hilary story, hook, line and sinker, and ignore the very true DJT story of a horribly flawed and failed cartoon of a businessman. The rest is history that we all lived in shock and awe for four years. But we survived.
As 2020’s election cycle shaped-up, the desperate need for a strong Democratic candidate to unseat the Trump clown car was clear, but as is often the case, the field of candidates, while large and broad (28 candidates), was a collection of people all with noticeably flat sides to them. Joe Biden seemed to have faded into the Beltway woodwork and appeared to have low interest in running. I thought that was a good thing since I considered him to be too old at 78. It was also hard to forget that Obama was still not convinced that Joe was the man for the job. We watched as the Iowa caucuses threw support in the direction of a new, young face, Pete Buttigieg. But there was Bernie, Kamala, Amy, Beto and Elizabeth Warren and it was as though the Democrats were diluting themselves too widely to have a shot at winning against the evil empire of Donald Trump, despite his checkered history in the job.
And then came South Carolina and Jim Clyburn and the black vote support for Joe Biden. It was as though the ghost of Barack Obama (not the man himself, since he was still on the sidelines at that point) had risen up and touched Joe Biden on the shoulder and chosen him. He was an average Joe who may or may not have had the gumption at that point to run for the top office in the land, but someone or something had chosen him for greatness and he rose up and decided that he would throw himself into the volcano. That selflessness combined with the disgust over the Trump reign sent Joe to the ballot box with a popular and electoral college majority that was unassailable (despite all the protestations of Trump and other election deniers). And Joe stood alive at the top of the volcano with Jill (Meg Ryan?) at his side like she was Fay Wray.
But unlike in the movie, there was no conquering the volcano for our Joe. He took office in the midst of a COVID crisis that was disrupting the world economy and with Russia standing on the sidelines waiting for the right moment to continue its aggressions against Ukraine. Every president has his issues that make the playing field challenging, but it seemed that Joe had climbed a volcano that was in the midst of erupting. Joe has never had a moment when the lava has not been flowing around his feet, threatening to make his work impossible. But then a funny thing happened, Joe seemed to get his second wind. Just like in the movie, this hypochondriac rose to the occasion and shook off his weaknesses to become the hero of the last two years. But unlike the movie, the audience has had a harder time appreciating all that he has been able to do. By almost any objective standards of measurement of the economy or in terms of important legislation, Joe has done an amazing job over the last two years. It is often said that no American president has had a more effective first two years since FDR. In fact, Joe is likened to FDR for many reasons and the challenging nature of the times he has had to operate make that a reasonable analogy. And even with all that evidence and hindsight, Joe is still just barely getting his due from the American public. Perhaps that’s a result of a press that has allowed misinformation and politicization to take precedent. But then again, it could just be the fickle nature of the electorate during turbulent times. But for whatever reason, we sit here as the 2024 election cycle begins and does so after a surprisingly successful 2022 midterm election cycle for the administration, with a huge question mark about whether Joe will or should run again in 2024.
To be fair, Joe will be, at age 82, by far the oldest presidential candidate in our history. Actually, William Harvey (81 in 1932) and Harold Stassen (85 in 1992) were as old or older, but the fact that these are not names that roll off our tongue make it clear that Joe would be the oldest serious candidate. Even Ronald Reagan, who ran for his second term at age 74, and was thought of by most of us as so old that he had to nap every afternoon in office, was well younger than Joe will be in 2024. As I watch Joe walking to Marine One for a trip to some meeting or appearance, he looks like he is simply too tired to carry on for another four years (he would be 86 when he left office).
I think that Joe’s accomplishments should have earned him the right to a second term, but I think his age has always been a limiting factor that could easily and probably should deprive him of that opportunity. I’m not sure that is such a woeful dis to a man who probably wasn’t ever destined for such greatness, but just happened to be there when the nation needed him in 2020 and was able to gather up the black population of the United States behind him, almost in honor of his president, Barack Obama. I believe Joe will go down in history favorably, just like I am certain that Trump will go down in infamy. Joe will be seen as the guy who put himself up against the volcano and persevered to ultimately defeat the volcano. Unfortunately, like all volcanos, this one has not gone away and it isn’t even clear that it is pausing its disruption cycle, but in the battle of Joe versus the volcano, I would say that the score is 1-0.