High Plains Drifter
I look nothing like Clint Eastwood. I think nothing like Clint Eastwood. I’ve heard about his politics, so I want nothing to do with Clint Eastwood. But damn, does that guy know how to make movies that appeal to us all. I am my own version of a high plains drifter. I’ve spent my life parachuting into new places and figuring out how to prevail. Now comes the ultimate test of that skillset. Can I parachute into the post-Coronavirus world and prevail?
Today I got to practice my response to that question. I was interviewed by an innovation consulting company engaged to help a consumer electronics company divine its path through Coronavirus and out the other side. I got a $250 pre-paid Visa for my thirty minutes of trouble. In actuality I got much more. What I got from the exercise was a contextual framework, a way of organizing my thoughts about the future. To begin with, of late I spent $750 on motion-sensitive outdoor lighting which I had installed last week. And then today, I just happened to take delivery on $950 worth of Ring equipment including a video doorbell with solar recharger, a motion-detector camera with a solar recharging panel, and three adaptors to control house lighting via the Ring app. I would call these all Smart-Home electronics.
So, I felt particularly well-qualified to respond to the interview even though I was really on tap to answer more general questions about my views on the post-COVID world. The framework worked off four mainline questions:
1. What is your background and expertise?
2. Macro-trends. What is your framework for managing through this crisis? What shifts are occurring that impact your business?
3. What brands or brand strategies do you feel are handling the crisis well or poorly?
4. What educated predictions (2-5 years out) would you offer about the main uncertainties you see?
Who I am should have been an easy question, but in these ponderous times it’s more difficult. Am I a Wall Street executive since I spent 45 years doing that? Maybe it would be better to just say I’m a finance executive. I don’t say “executive” to sound fancy or senior, but to make sure no one thinks I can still do complex spreadsheet analysis. Don’t get me wrong, I could do that if I wanted (I’m much more spreadsheet literate than most execs of my age …. really….. seriously). But I haven’t worked on Wall Street since I was unceremoniously dismissed from Bear Stearns, so I tend to say I am now a venture capitalist who is running a venture company. For some reason, it’s important to me to say that I’m really much more than just a Wall Street guy, so I say I was a Clinical Professor of Finance at Cornell to establish my breadth credentials. From there I mention my pension expertise to remind people that I’m a caring person. I’m not sure, but I may be too invested in my work in defining myself, but so was The Stranger on the high plains.
The macro trends I noted were first and foremost that other than staying alive during the crisis (meaning in mind and body and economically) the main instruction had to be to hold all bets. That means don’t panic and sell and don’t try to be a hero and buy. Stay close to shore until we all know more about the direction of the world. This is less for fear of the future than for uncertainty about what the future holds. I have been quite vocal that this is a time to strategize rather than act. To think rather than lunge forward. What I do believe is almost certain is that we are heading back by necessity to an era of big government. Knowing how to finance and navigate in that truly public sector will be more valuable than open capital market skills. We already see the Federal Reserve being not just the lender of last resort, but the lender for all. Whether you welcome or fear socialism, it is needed in difficult times…for everyone’s sake. I remember when I lived in Canada for two years pondering why Canadians were more willing to embrace a more socialistic model where Americans did not. I concluded that it was because the westward expansion of Canada was against a far harsher more northerly country where collectivism was needed to push west. Americans may not have been more independent than Canadian pioneers, but they certainly had a slightly less hostile environment with which to contend. Today’s hostile environment will cause plants to still close (though some will push back) and some companies will be acquired (despite the best efforts of AOC and Elizabeth Warren), but it will be less predatory than in times when we didn’t need each other so much just to survive.
As for brands and brand strategy, I believe that every business will head down one of three paths. There will either be no change, modest change or complete and utter change. Those brands that will not face change must just take the kindler/gentler path so that the public knows they have their best interests in mind and are not taking advantage of their situation. Those that face a degree of change must take a quick and aggressive stand and push forward with confidence. Consumers will not stay with those who are not committed to continuing forward. As for those brands that are faced with wholesale disruption, they must start by explaining and accepting their predicament. Honesty will be the only possible salvation they will have and even that may not be sufficient.
Educated predictions abound, but none with complete certainty. Those which I believe are more likely than not are less travel, more WFH, less urban existence, more change which will necessarily be embraced for its inevitability and a return to globalism that speaks to the reality that is more overwhelming than all else, that we are all in this together. Even the High Plains Drifter eventually embraces the town and they him.