Gray Divorce

Gray Divorce

I read two articles this morning with very different and noteworthy perspectives. One was from CNN on the topic of the trend among Baby Boomers towards choosing to live alone in later life. The other was from The Economist about happiness and how they have determined that happiness continues to rise, on a very steady upward curve, as we age. Since happiness is closely connected to relationships and being around people as well as pets, it’s a little bit hard to reconcile these two articles, and explain how Baby Boomers can continue to get happier and happier as a class, even though they are more and more choosing to live alone, and not in marital bliss.

The CNN article attributed what they called the “gray divorce” trend to a combination of factors, heavily influenced by the increased economic independence of women and the demographic longevity extension underway that has taken “till death do us part” to an extreme. Census data shows us that there are 38 million Americans who live alone. that represents over 11% of the US population. But when you look specifically at the population that is 65 years or older, there are 16 million people who live alone and that represents over 28% of that particular cohort population. I think it is fair to say that that represents a significant and changing trend.

That portion of loners in the oldest age group is approximately three times greater than it was in the 1960s. And it is generally felt that with the changing attitudes towards marriage, as well as a continuation of the professionalization of the female workforce and the ongoing aging of the overall population, this trend will only continue to grow over the next 50 years.

If I use a small sample of the next generation in my family, and Kim’s family, that sample size consists of three of my children, four of my sisters’, children, and two of Kim’s siblings’ children for a total sample size of nine. That sample consists of six males and three females, so it is slightly gender skewed, but not by much. All nine of those, range in age from age 28 to 44. It is fair to say that they represent a reasonable cross-section of the Millennial cohort, even though the boundaries of that cohort are stretched a little bit at both ends by their respective ages. Of those nine, as of three weeks from now (when my youngest son, Thomas, gets married), six are married, and three are unmarried even though two of those three are in committed relationships, but have simply chosen not to take formal wedding vows. That percentage of married to unmarried implies a slightly larger component of unmarried people than the national statistics imply for these young people who are in the prime marital zone. National statistics suggest that 25% of American 40 year olds have never been married and this is a growing trend up from 20% in 2010. Since my family cohort is slightly younger than that 40-year-old set, seeing a percentage of those married of 33% does not strike me as out of line with this trend.

As with all trends, it’s hard to suggest the trees will grow to the sky, therefore, it’s equally hard to say that a continuously growing percentage of Americas youth will remain unmarried by choice, but it does still suggest that we, as a country, are changing our sociological status by quite a bit due to our apparent unwillingness as a society to commit to long-term personal partnerships. I think we all know that long-term partnerships of any kind are difficult, but in days gone by, it has always seemed that the bigger difficulty was in making it through life successfully without a partnership. That seems less the case these days or at least it’s perceived to be less by younger people, perhaps especially women.

I am not certain what this does predicts for the state of happiness of America’s next generation, but I’m sure sociologists will tell us more as this trend continues. Happiness curves have historically implied that we are happier in our youth, and then again in our older age, and that the burdens of survival are hardest on the happiness levels of those in between youth and old age. These recent trends make me wonder whether that U-curve is inverting or is likely to invert. It seems to me that young people are more discontent with the state of the world, the environmental issues the world faces, the absence of sufficient economic opportunity, and the changing work landscape as best exemplified by the impact of technological trends like AI. Due to longevity extension, and to a certain degree, the concerns about retirement income security and general levels of prosperity among the baby boom generation, not to mention this new loneliness coefficient, which appears to be growing, I would think that happiness would see some decrease in older age. That would imply that people in the prime of life are generally happier than they were either in their youth or will be into the future. I cannot prove that theory, nor do I wish it on society, but it does strike me as a logical outcome.

I reflect on my personal situation, and I regain some degree of hope that my concern about the inversion of the happiness U-curve is overstated. To begin with, I think it is in man’s nature to begin life being very optimistic. and perhaps because I am less troubled with my financial circumstances, I see a great number of people, my age being in a good position and feeling quite happy in their later years. Obviously, I’m going to exclude those people who encounter health problems, or those who just generally grow into, sort of, a negative senility. For the most part, I see a lot of people my age who are quite happy, and who are quite happy to be happily married.

None of that makes too many assumptions about the marital state of people, my age, and I certainly don’t dare comment about the marital status of others. I know whether they are friends or family to do so would create big waves somewhere. But as for me and Kim, we are both very happy to be married and almost can’t imagine a life where we aren’t together. I know what some of you are thinking, that, perhaps I don’t have the most accurate perspective of Kim’s views. Reflected in that statement is my presumption that Kim is too honest to mislead me on that front. You must remember that Kim was unmarried until the age of 47 and I think she remembers those days all too well. She has told me of her challenges in those days and the loneliness of not being in a committed relationship. I, on the other hand, was first married at 22, married the second time at 37, and finally married to Kim at age 53. I have been in committed relationships more or less continuously for 48 years and understand all too well how hard it is to find one that works well and makes me happy (I fully admit to the possibility that my prior wives would likely say the exact same thing). I am thankful to an extreme that Kim and I found each other and have made a life together.

Kim and I make a point of telling each other every day how happy we are with each other and how much we appreciate being together. I don’t think that is artificial in the least. For our own, perhaps separate reasons, or perhaps similar reasons, we would want nothing to do with gray divorce. In fact, my scariest moments are the ones in which I ask myself. “What would I do without Kim?” I know that a sample of one does not prove anything, but still, that all leaves me thinking that both CNN and The Economist need to go back to the drawing board and rethink what this demographic data suggests about the sociological trends in the country as it ages even further.