Fly Me To the Moon
I must admit that I haven’t spent a lot of time focused on the space race since that was the race between Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Richard Branson to be the first billionaire in space. So, I wasn’t so very aware that both Russia and India were rushing to beat one another to land an unmanned ship at the South Pole of the moon. I’m not sure that is so hard to imagine since NASA’s budget is $25.4 billion for next year and India budgets about $1.6 billion where Russia spends (as best we can tell from our forensic analysis of their not-so-tightly-held state secrets) $1.5 billion. To put that into perspective, beyond the calculation that those two countries spend about 6% of what we spend, Elon Musk has added to his net worth in 2023 the same amount as they spend in just three days. It takes Jeff Bezos about four days to do likewise. Branson says he doesn’t like being called a billionaire, so I won’t bother to do the same calculation for his since he is probably worth less than Vladimir Putin anyway. Come to think of it, Musk and Bezos may be worth less than him as well… My point is that neither Russia nor India seem to have the means to be serious contenders for claiming ownership of parts of the moon.
The reason they are both aiming for the South Pole is that everyone is thinking that with the water potential there, it may be the best spot for ongoing colonization of the moon to be able to mine it, farm it or do whatever anyone wants to do with the acreage. Let’s be clear, unless you are a conspiracy purveyor that thinks we faked our moon landing of Apollo 11 in 1969, its been 54 years since we put the LEM, with two live astronauts (Armstrong had not been born again, but certainly Aldrin was lively, to say the least) in the Sea of Tranquility Site 2. When I saw the two pictures of the Russian and Indian lunar landing modules that they have wanted to land as drones on the moon’s South Pole, my first thought was that in those 54 years there had been very little obvious change in the look of these vehicles. I know the moon has little atmosphere and things like streamlining mean little, and I’m sure the digital capabilities of their vehicles are far superior to the LEM of ‘69, but it sure did look like they were landing a 1069 Plymouth Roadrunner on the moon in 2023.
I understand the sense that both Putin and Modi must have for wanting to be the guy who runs the America of 1969 in 2023. Putin needs the boost to his standing so that he can say to the world that he is fending off the Ukrainian counteroffensive with one hand behind his back busy landing on the moon. Meanwhile Modi wants to overcome that old bad Indian joke with the punchline “oh no, not another day like a week ago Thursday!” That implies that Indians are not quite up to the task of doing something so complex even if they do have 1.4 billion people (now the largest population in the world), most of whom sit in the front row of whatever classroom they inhabit. The U.S. has a GDP of $25 trillion where India has $3.6 trillion and Russia $2.3 trillion, 3% or more of which they are tossing into the Ukraine War (probably more if you count their ransom fees to the Wagner Group). It is amazing that half a century has past and no other country has picked up the mantle in the space race. China was the best candidate, but their most recent demographic and economic woes probably sideline them for the time being. Is the American early dominance of the moon an issue of American excellence or just American obstinance and willingness to take risks?
If you ask most Americans why we explore space and do things like strive for targets like getting to the moon, they will likely say that its a combination of national pride and the technological wonders that spring from the effort, even though many my age might only be able to think of Tang as a direct outcropping of our space race. My pal Frank was a Washington beltway venture capitalist, and I learned from him about how all the satellite technology associated with the space race yielded such technological and commercial offspring as the Dish Network and Pixar (think imaging). Those developments, along with such ubiquitous technology as the internet itself, actually sprang from the Department of Defense, which should remind us that the defense and security benefits of all that technological advancement and geospatial positioning yields big military advantages. So, clearly there is more than Tang to consider and I think its safe to say that both Russia and India are not oblivious to that angle.
But you have to be a long-term thinker to see benefits in spending billions of dollars in a world of limited resources in order to garner bigger, longer-term benefits, not to mention less certain and perhaps less tangible benefits. Who among us would have put a $25 billion per annum price tag in 1960 on a one page description of a dream of a digital electronic system that would use data packetization to create a seamless global communication system that would connect the planet and give powerful access to information and artificial intelligence to build and run businesses and every aspect of human existence to its vast benefit. Who could have imagined the impact on our lifestyle, our ways of thinking, our commercial enterprises and our political organization that such a vague-sounding idea like that might have embodied. And I don’t think its crazy to peg that development to our space race and our efforts to get to the moon in that crazy decade of societal upheaval.
So, back on the moon, stuff is happening. Most notably of late, the Russian’s lunar lander, Luna 5 crashed on Saturday, ending their bid to beat the Indians to the South Pole. For their part, the Indians purposefully crashed a lander on the moon in 2008 and it has taken them fifteen years (twice as long as it took NASA to go start to finish with live astronauts in the 60’s) to position them to land an unmanned lunar module called Vikram in the next few days. If they pull that off successfully, they will become the fourth country (After the US, Russia – on a prior attempt, and China) to have a controlled landing on the moon. I guess the other BRICS, namely Brazil and South Africa are falling behind. Actually, Brazil has signed a pact with the U.S. (the Artemis Accord, signed by other nations as well) to send a Brazilian or two to the moon. As for South Africa, nothing seems planned for the moon, but non-BRICS like Japan, South Korea and the UAE have announced plans to give it a try in the next year. As it turns out, the moon club is something you want to be a part of these days for some reason.
I know it sounds hokey to say it, but I believe in art for art’s sake and that knowledge is it’s own reward. I believe we should go to the moon and keep going to the moon and beyond because we don’t know what going there will do for humankind, but it is the type of progress that makes man what he is in the universe and keeps propelling him forward. I’m happy that India may soon be added to the list of countries that can claim a stake in the moon and what it offers the world of the future. I’m also happy that Russia crashed and burned in its latest efforts, not because they are Russians but since there were no lives lost, I think the symbolism that what Putin is doing contrary to the advancement of the human race in places like Ukraine and elsewhere makes him unworthy of being part of the advancing of human progress. Since I have always said that “my heart leaps up when I behold, a rainbow in the sky” (Thank you Bill Wordsworth), I feel OK expressing my optimism in the world’s future by quoting Old Blue Eyes by saying that the modern version is to “fly me to the moon!”