For some time now, we’ve been watching the somewhat normal process of the rebalancing of the political landscape in the United States from conservative Republicanism to Democratic collectivism. I know we like to label things in this country and the favorite labels these days include fascism, communism, socialism, and any other handy isms. But the big picture fundamental is best captured as the generic labels of conservativism versus collectivism.
This morning on CNN International, there was a short human interest piece about a raccoon that broke into a bar and guzzled down a bunch of beer and alcohol as well as an abundance of peanuts and beer nuts. This drunken raccoon was anthropomorphized into the Everyman of today, less because of his binge, but more because he wound up stone cold unconscious on the bathroom floor next to the toilet. I feel like there are a whole cadre of Americans who are just now waking up on the bathroom floor after 10 years of the drunken stupor of Donald Trump. We all knew it would come to this, but there’s no stopping the party animal once it’s on a tear. We are now facing the inevitable morning after and it’s worth pointing out the rays of light that are beginning to peek through the blinds.
Let’s start with Congress. After the November 2024 elections, Republicans narrowly retained control of the House of Representatives with 220 seats to Democrats’ 215 seats – the tightest House majority in nearly 100 years. This means Republicans have a very slim 5-seat majority and can only afford to lose 2-3 votes on party-line votes (assuming everyone shows up). Any absences or defections can derail legislation. Democrats made a net gain of 1 seat from Republicans, which represents the smallest net change in US history in the House. The final outcome was incredibly close with the majority decided by just over 7,000 votes across three congressional districts (Iowa’s 1st, Colorado’s 8th, and Pennsylvania’s 7th) out of nearly 148 million votes cast. Anyway you slice it, that’s a narrow margin. Combined with Trump’s presidential win and Republican Senate control, this gave Republicans a government trifecta. However, the extremely narrow House margin means Speaker Mike Johnson is continuously facing challenges getting legislation passed, as even a handful of Republican defections sinks bills.
Democrats are currently favored to retake the House in 2026, but it’s still early and a lot can change. The historical pattern is working against Republicans as it always tends to for incumbent administrations. The president’s party has only gained House seats in midterm elections twice since 1950 – in 1998 and 2002. On average across 75 years, the president’s party has lost 25 seats. This is called the midterm “iron law.” Since Republicans only have a 219-213 majority at the moment (with several added members like Marjorie Taylor Greene, announcing departure soon), Democrats need to flip just three seats to secure the majority . That’s an unusually small target. Several forecasting models predict Democratic gains. One forecasting model predicts Republicans will lose 28 seats based on presidential approval and economic data. Another economic model forecasts Democrats will win 223 seats… a gain of ten seats. Recent polling shows 46% of registered voters say they’ll vote Democratic versus 40% Republican, a 6-point Democratic advantage. But given the fallacy of polling and modeling in the last few national elections, things remain up for grabs.
The key factors to watch include Trump’s job approval. During the past three decades, every time the president’s net job approval was negative a year before a midterm election, the president’s party lost ground in the House. The Democratic advantage may come from voter composition…highly educated voters who lean Democratic tend to vote more regularly in midterm elections, while Republicans may find it difficult to mobilize the less-attached voters Trump brought out when his name was on the ballot. This pattern hurt Republicans badly in 2018. But it’s early…we’re still a year out, and presidential approval can shift significantly. Trump’s policies on tariffs, government efficiency, and other issues could either help or hurt depending on how they affect people’s daily lives. So far, those disfavor Trump, but economic conditions in 2026 will matter enormously and Trump’s minions are pulling every economic lever and statistical lever (truthful, or not) that they can. The bottom line… history and the narrow margin favor Democrats, but midterms are ultimately a referendum on the sitting president’s performance and an unbiased appraisal would suggest that’s not a strong point for him.
The Senate picture for 2026 is much more favorable for Republicans than the House, indeed, its almost the opposite situation. the map strongly favors Republicans. They are defending 22 of the 35 seats up for election (including special elections in Ohio and Florida), while Democrats are defending only 13 seats. Despite Republicans having more seats to defend, most rating groups consider the map favorable to Republicans because only two Republican-held seats are considered competitive, while two to four Democratic-held seats are vulnerable. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake control (Republicans currently have 53-47 majority). That’s a steep hill to climb.
The common wisdom says that a flipped House will result in a near-immediate third impeachment vote. As happened the prior two times, the Senate vote will be the key. Senate Republicans have broken with Trump on several significant issues recently, though they remain generally supportive overall. The most dramatic split came when Trump demanded the Senate end the legislative filibuster to break the government shutdown, but Senate Majority Leader John Thune immediately rejected it, saying his “position on the importance of the legislative filibuster is unchanged” . At least a dozen Republicans are on record against eliminating the filibuster , and even Speaker Mike Johnson defended keeping it. Then there’s The “One Big Beautiful Bill”. Three Republican senators – Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Thom Tillis of North Carolina – voted against Trump’s sweeping tax cut and spending bill, forcing Vice President JD Vance to break a 50-50 tie . Collins opposed it due to proposed Medicaid cuts, while Tillis cited concerns about Medicaid coverage for over 600,000 North Carolinians being at risk. Trump later threatened Tillis with primary challengers, and Tillis subsequently announced he wouldn’t seek reelection. In terms of Tariffs, Collins, Murkowski, and Paul were the only three Republicans to break with their party in support of reining in Trump’s use of emergency powers to trigger tariffs, though the effort failed. But the recent Venezuelan strikes and expose has changed that.…Senator Lisa Murkowski said she was deeply troubled by reports of a “double-tap” military strike on drug boat survivors, calling it potentially a war crime, saying “there are rules of war. We don’t do that”. Both Secretary of Defense Hegseth and President Trump have doubled down on their “get tough” rhetoric with regard to the strikes. But pressure on this issue continues to mount. The same can be said for the regular and ongoing Epstein saga pressures that don’t seem to want to go away for Trump. Trump is also allowing his potty-mouth to run away with him of late. When Trump labeled Democratic lawmakers as “traitors” deserving jail, Rand Paul called it “reckless” and “irresponsible,” and Senate Majority Leader Thune distanced himself from the comments. His Thanksgiving and Somali tirades have made the most loyal Republicans cringe. I’m not sure I would want this Republican Senate to vote on my impeachment conviction if I were him…
This all tells us that there’s substantial evidence of a leftward political shift in 2025, particularly as a reaction to Trump’s second term, writ large. Trump’s approval ratings have also cratered. Trump’s job approval rating has fallen to 36%, the lowest of his second term and approaching his all-time low of 34%. Since his inauguration, Trump has lost support among key groups: Republican voters’ approval decreased 12 points from 91% to 79%, and his disapproval intensified among independent voters from 44% to 51%, and Hispanics from 39% to 54% . The New York Times poll aggregator showed Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a low of 41% during his second term, down from 52% in January .
Perhaps the biggest evidence of the dawning sobriety is that Democrats swept off-year elections in November and scored victories in the four major races of the night: the New York City mayoral race, the governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia and Prop 50, California’s redistricting ballot measure. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger beat her Republican opponent by 14.6%—a very solid victory . These were seen as early referendums on Trump. The “generic ballot” has shifted Democratic with a 6-point Democratic advantage, larger than at this point before the 2024 election (1-point) or the 2022 midterms (4 points). Of eight Trump policies polled among young Americans, none has more than 35% support. Just 19% of 18- to 29-year-olds support implementing new tariffs on foreign goods, while 50% oppose them. The prolonged shutdown in October-November 2025 significantly hurt Trump and congressional Republicans. The shutdown was cited as a major factor in Democratic election victories. Democrat victories suggest that the recent drift of Hispanic voters away from Democrats might have been temporary and is reversing. The pattern is clear: Trump’s aggressive policies, the shutdown, and economic concerns have all created a backlash that’s benefiting Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms.
The drunken raccoon is waking up and smelling the bathroom floor on his breath.