Drowning in the Mainstream
In the classic 1951 movie A Place in the Sun, Montgomery Clift rows out in a boat on Lake Tahoe (the reality versus the Adirondacks it was supposed to represent) and he has with him his knocked-up girlfriend played by Shelly Winters. He is vexed as a poor boy by the desire to make it big and snag the rich girl (Liz Taylor), to have his place in the sun, and, on the other hand, his values about doing the right thing and thus risk living his life in quiet desperation. As Monty and Shelly drift along in their little rowboat, they leave their smallness behind and symbolically find themselves in the overcast of life in the mainstream of the lake. There is no sun on that lake on that day, just clouds and darkness. So when they go into the drink by mistake, fate wills it that Shelly perishes and Monty survives, as though he had willed it to be so, but had left her fate in the hands of the gods. The lesson we learn as Monty is marched off to the electric chair is that it is not enough to let shit happen, we have to proactively make the right things happen. Then we might get our place in the sun.
I am faced with the same sort of conundrum in my business. I was just sent a comprehensive report (over 200 pages) published this summer by the leading scientific authority in the world. The biggest players in the field, many of whom I have met and know something of us, are part of the editorial board of this seminal report. The conclusion of the report is that the space we have pivoted towards turns out to be the next new new big thing. It is not a brand new space, but it is a recently revived space that may have finally found its moment in the sun, its moment to be the new mainstream. It is a captivating report that speaks to the imperatives of governments, industry and financiers funding this important arena and flooding the R&D coffers with the money to quickly enhance the offerings and solidify the science into commercializable product that can gain traction. It defines the product array exactly as we would with the third and most provocative product coming from the science we are championing. The water looks warm and inviting and it can be read to mean that we have chosen very well in our pivot towards this pond.
The thing about ponds and mainstreams are that one never really knows what lies beneath the surface. Are the currents as friendly as the calm surface would make you believe? And what of the other bathers standing at the shore or in the shallows? In a modification or analogies, I described the mainstream to a colleague as the surfer’s equivalent of Bells Beach from Point Break. I feel like Johnny Utah standing on the beach realizing that I have arrived just in time for the 50-year storm. I love to surf and I love hanging ten over the board for fun, but 50-foot waves are not for amateurs and maybe it is better left to Bodhi and the other pros from Dover. Such is the scale and magnitude of the opportunity portrayed in that 200-page report and the space we have chosen to pivot towards.
Hosea in the highest in the Old Testament says, “They that sow the wind shall reap the whirlwind”. I’m mixing a lot of metaphors, but the dilemma is very stark and very real. Troubled waters make for good fishing and good surfing, but they also make for easy drowning. The good news is that we are at the right place at the right time, but how we choose to enter the water or sow the wind, will determine everything.
My colleague wants me to consider going big or going home, a common Silicon Valley castigation. It speaks to the relative ease of making things happen if you approach them with a confidence that says that if you are bigger than the mainstream and the whirlwind, you can prevail. Ride on the wave, don’t get crushed by it. It makes sense, but it takes a raft of bravado to pull off, especially if you are more Johnny Utah than Bodhi at heart. I have seen in many past instances that people with excessive domain knowledge are not always the ones that find the path to the top of the wave. The unconventional approach is often more successful than swimming directly into the mainstream with a tried and true approach. But the quandary at any moment is that expertise may triumph over zeal, knowledge over bravado, but, of course, it’s hard to know for sure.
As I stand on this beach I have 42 million reasons to believe that I must risk being unconventional and cannot avoid thrusting myself into the whirlwind. I have a small, but sturdy, surfboard. I think it is the latest greatest technology, but a 50-year perfect storm and its resultant wave is not something you can design and test for. Anything can happen. I have convinced myself that one good ride will win the day, but the truth is that one good ride could cause people to not declare victory, but just to insist that I go out and prove it over and over again to establish championship credentials that others will value. Does my confidence extend to that sort of repeat success? Even harder to say.
I have spent my career in the backwaters for some reason. I have always avoided the mainstream. It has been a highly successful strategy. There was too much competition in the mainstream and life was too dangerous. Now, what were the backwaters, with success something that could be accomplished with more upside than downside, has reverted mysteriously into a mainstream struggle. The mainstream has big upside, but even bigger downside. My favorite ratio has inverted and is now staring me in the face with lots of risk. I take pride in my finding my way to this mainstream beach, but suddenly realize its challenges. The sport does not allow me to wear a life preserver into the fray. I go in bare-breasted and ready for whatever presents itself. I know that drowning is on the menu and it is always served cold. Nonetheless, as is the nature of the pioneering cadre to which I pride myself as belonging, we must always be ready to drown in the mainstream. We cannot just let shit happen to us or we will all end up like Monty, wondering what happened to our place in the sun.