Despondent

Despondent

It’s election night and there are about one third of the races that have been called by NBC News. It’s a dead heat with Biden having a slight electoral vote lead at this point (98 to 86) but it is far from an ebullient night so far. I don’t believe in getting despondent about an election because my natural optimism doesn’t lend itself to going into the dark early on. I hate all the talk about moving to Canada or Italy, which is starting already at 7:30pm here in the room. You have to understand that I have lived in both Italy (three years in 1968-1971) and Canada (1990-1992) as an expat. I love Italy as much as anywhere and I think Canada is an impressive country on many levels. And yet, I would literally NEVER want to move permanently to either country. I have considered buying a vacation home in Italy once or twice, but that thinking has never gone further than first base. I simply don’t consider either country to be worthy of my allegiance the way I pledge my allegiance to America and have done so for 67 years. I cannot completely understand the strength of my conviction about the United States other than to suggest that my childhood absence for six years in Latin America (Venezuela for four years and Costa Rica for two years) made my heart grow considerably fonder and America was NEVER out-of-sight-out-of-mind. Trump just claimed Utah and Missouri (no surprise) so its now 98 to 102 in electoral votes favoring Trump. Still not despondent.

I will not fall to any despondency tonight. I have bought into the view that we will not know the likely outcome of the election for several days yet. Four years ago we had a gathering at our apartment in Staten Island and I remember going to bed after watching state after state fall to trump’s advantage. it was certainly a depressing night, but I don’t think I went to despondent even then. I was one of the optimists that felt that Trump would be bad, but not as bad as everyone thought. I figured he would suddenly turn Presidential and understand the importance of changing his silly ways. I was dead wrong, it has been far worse than I or anyone could possibly have predicted. By the way, Biden just took Illinois (as expected) and is now at 118 against Trump’s 102.

Now everyone is worrying that Pennsylvania will be the King-maker and that we will find ourselves in the Supreme Court for the ultimate decision. I think not. I remain very optimistic because this race is simply too important to give one inch of negative thought to whatever gods of chance exist. I am officially worried about the Senate outcome watching Susan Collins in the lead in my old stomping ground of Maine. Collins has been such a mealy-mouthed politician that it is hard for me to understand who would want her representing them in Congress. Angus King seems more palatable to Mainiacs and a fiercely independent guy who looks and sounds like he should live in Maine staring out at a harsh Nor-Easter with a squinty-eyed look. As of this moment we stand in Senate races at 42 to 42, so a real nail-biter.

By the way, with Mississippi and Wyoming falling to Trump we are now at 118 to 114. No, wait, the West Coast just came in strong as expected for Biden in California, Washington and Oregon turning the electoral vote to 192 to 114 favoring Biden. Biden is now 78 electoral votes shy of the tape and that will be how I look at the numbers from here on in unless Trump should pull a rabbit out of a hat and retake the lead.

The count hasn’t changed in an hour and we are closing in on 9pm (Midnight EST). By this time four years ago we were going to bed feeling very confused about how this could happen. This year the message we have all been pre-programmed to expect is that there will not be an obvious outcome tonight. That seems to be more likely than not at this point. It’s interesting to be watching results on Pacific Time since we will stay up later and have more information when we rest our heads for the night. But that may be a detriment in a year like this since my guess is that the early morning results that the East Coast will hear about while we’re still snoozing may be more significant than anything we get late tonight. Such is the strange world we are in. I just heard that in Las Vegas the Republicans have brought a legal action to keep the polls in Las Vegas open later since the voting trend at the polls and in the lines formed at seven polling stations was decidedly red. Imagine that, Republicans working to make sure every voter gets his vote counted.

They just gave Ohio to Trump, which was always expected except for some glimmers of hope earlier in the evening. That added 18 electoral votes to Trump taking the count to 192 to 132 still favoring Biden. Trump seems to be holding his strength in Georgia unfortunately and Idaho just tossed Trump another four but Virginia with 13 has gone to Biden and taken this to 205 to 136. Biden is now 65 electoral votes to the finish line.

Steve Kornacki has just explained that if Biden wins Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and the district of Omaha (which has 1 electoral vote), Biden gets to 270 regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania. Nevada and Arizona look good as does Minnesota and Omaha, but Wisconsin and Michigan are real nerve-rackers since Trump looks to be ahead now, but pollsters and local knowledge people suggest that the way the votes are counted cause this red feint situation. That does not give me a lot of excess confidence.

But I started this little trip through my electoral evening by talking about being despondent or not. Don’t ask me what I do if Trump wins. That is the thinking that might make me despondent. I stay away from thinking bad thoughts like that as my way of keeping my distance from that despondent place.