Crossover

Crossover

The recent chaos in the House of Representatives over Kevin McCarthy’s speakership has made many of us ask the obvious question of what’s next. My friend Gary and I seem to be two of the only people that I know that have the stomach for discussing such things. Whenever I bring up politics these days, I mostly see peoples’ eyes rolling, and the firm expression on their faces implying that they wish I would talk about something else. I do, but I must admit that sometimes it’s hard. And this from somebody who never gave a whit about politics until Mr. Trump landed on our doorstep. I’ve come to think that this is not a game that I take pleasure in spectating, but rather an existential issue less for me, but more for my children and grandchildren. I will admit that my peace of mind will be troubled in my later years if we don’t find an acceptable resolution, but I also understand that I could probably put my head down and more or less peacefully slide through on my way to my ultimate conclusion. Since I’m not ready to do that yet, it’s good that I have Gary who is a few years older than me and who has a doctoral degree in political history to discuss such things with.

The first issue was whether or not, we actually thought McCarthy would be forced to vacate the speaker spot. It seemed clear to me that Matt Gaetz would succeed in his vendetta against McCarthy. I felt fairly certain that he would find at least four of his compatriots like Paul Gosar of Arizona to vote with him on McCarthy‘s Aster. As it turns out, he got seven other crazies to go along with him. I am sure that if you asked any of them why they were doing this, they would claim that McCarthy lied to them repeatedly and they could no longer stomach that. The back door for McCarthy‘s salvation was supposed to be the Democrats potentially coming to his victory either by voting no to the vacate challenge or at least abstaining by voting present. That was a big test for Hakeem Jeffries because it would tell the world whether the Democrats were united, or whether they were really no different than the Republicans in being factionalized. I’m sure that the fact that Nancy Pelosi weighed in as strongly over the weekend in her view that the Democrats should not support McCarthy had a lot to do with Jeffery deciding not to go down his normal path of reconciliation, and instead go down the path of voting for McCarthy‘s dismissal.

I must admit that I was surprised when I heard McCarthy give his exit speech, stating that he would not run for speaker again, and that he had had enough of the miserable job. His one bit of advice to the next occupant of that seat was that they should change the rules, such that renegades like Gaetz, could not do to them what he did to McCarthy. At that point, the world stood with its mouth agape wondering what truly was next. It so happens that the Republican congressman in line directly behind McCarthy is Steve Scalise. The guy who got shot while playing softball by some deranged activist. The problem is that Scalise is undergoing cancer treatments and it’s unclear whether he is physically fit to take on what is clearly a demanding role. There are various other contenders or should I say pretenders to the throne of the speakership but nobody that immediately jumps to mind as an obvious candidate. This morning, one of the least rational congressman in the house, Jim Jordan of Ohio, has declared that he is running for the position. Having watched Jim Jordan conduct his various hearings in the last year and listening to his crazy talk about weaponization of the Department of Justice and other such things, it is shocking to me and, I’m sure, to many others, that such a man would ever be enthroned in such a lofty position that is only two steps away from the presidency. But then again, where is the shock and awe in that, given that Donald Trump actually did ascend to the presidency, and spend four years crashing about the White House and the West Wing.

Announcement of Jim Jordan’s candidacy has sparked the thought that made little sense to me yesterday, but now makes more sense to me today. The foundation of this thought is to wonder how it would be possible for Hakeem Jeffries to ascend to the throne of the speakership. My dream is suddenly that Jim Jordan is the vehicle that might make that possible. My theory is that enough of the 18 Republicans who sit in crossover districts, which voted for Joe Biden, will understand their tenuous position and will also consider Jim Jordan to be enough of a firebrand and renegade that they will be scared to consider the possibility of serving under him as speaker. Add to that, the chaos and disarray of this entire episode and those borderline or crossover Republicans may indeed do what happens every once in a while in Congress, which is that they will decide to shift allegiances. Even if we assume that they only move from Republican status to independent status, that would allow them to caucus with Hakeem Jeffries and potentially vote for him as speaker. When you do the math, the differential would only require five of the 18 to make that shift for that to be possible. I suspect that there is a ton of lobbying going on in the halls of the capital to that very end.

Republicans of a growing range MUST be starting to feel that they are on a train to crazy town with the Republican Party. The actions and activities in the House, the declining respect for the Supreme Court due to the Republican-instigated ethics scandals and the “packing the bench” issue, and, of course, the deepening hole (both criminal and civil) being dug by Donald Trump and his acolytes, must be leaving many Republicans feeling that their ship is badly damaged and sinking fast. We all like to focus all the Republican woes on Donald Trump, and while he does deserve much of the blame, the rot in the Republican Party hull runs deep and wide. It takes a lot and a long time to form a new political party, and even to dramatically reform a political party. We all know that for democracy to properly function we need at least two political parties. I have come to believe that we might be at a point where we realistically need more than two. I can imagine, from right to left, a MAGA Party, a Freedom Party, a Moderate Republican Party, an Independent Party, a Democratic Party and a Progressive Party. While we have all seen coalition governance flounder in various countries, when galvanization causes the extreme rifts between our two-party system and the factionalization therein, something needs to change. What I am suggesting is that the sort of first step of crossing over by some Republicans might well be the act that forces the hand of our political parties, especially the Republicans. I believe that such a move might well bring about a meaningful change in our otherwise broken system. I am crossing my heart and hoping the country does not die.