Continuing Confusion
It’s now been eight days since the dreaded debate that was heard around the world. The cycling of political emotions has been out of hand and continuously on everyone’s mind. What began as shock and awe turned immediately into taking sides. People on the right have stayed unusually quiet because they just can’t believe their own good fortune for the self-inflicted wounds being perpetrated by their opponents. First, Joe Biden shoots himself in both feet before he practically utters a word. Then, Democrats far and wide have a hard time not showing their fear for what it all portends. The worst of the “I told you so!” thinking came right to the surface like a cork held under the surface too long. Rationalizations from every other angle started formulating as we all had to make our peace with the new situation, as unpleasant as it was. The recitations of admiration for what a great job Biden had done over his presidency and the verbalization of his decency as a man were in full evidence all over the place. While Biden did not slow his campaigning pace with events the very night of the debate and the next day in the “he looks so much better” North Carolina rally, what everyone seemed to notice was that his make-up and manner of casual dress were noticeably more attuned to a younger version of himself rather than the stiff suited version we had all seen on TV. He was 100% on teleprompter, which he has gotten quite good at handling and sticking to in ways that Donald Trump could never subject himself to. But in addition to appearing to try too hard to act like there was nothing to see here, Biden was also whistling past any serious conversations with his fellow party members, most notably the leaders. They all knew that the suspicions about the topic of their conversations would be a political minefield, so they all kept their distance until it became too obvious to ignore.
All this action and inaction gave rise to the cable news pundits having to make shit up to talk about so there was all manner of analysis of what is wrong with Democrats and Republicans. Republicans are in denial and stand by their candidate do or die. Democrats wet the bed and wring their hands and distance themselves from their candidates at the drop of a hat. I’m not enough of a student of politics to know how universally true those characterizations are, but looking around us in this environment certainly lends credibility to the observation. Kim keeps asking why no one is calling for Trump to step down like they are of Biden. In one sense that is a very logical question, but in another it seems terribly naive.
Back in 2020, Biden took his sweet time to announce that he was willing to put himself back into the fray and even run after being soundly rejected in 2016 in favor of Hillary. That seemed sensible at the time since he had not even garnered the support of his most influential ex-boss, Barack Obama. It was not until South Carolina and James Clyburn decided that he was Democrat’s best hope for victory, that he really put his shoulder to the campaign wheel. It’s funny to contemplate, but Trump, the orange-faced wonder, was put on the stick like a carrot to dangle in front of Joe Biden and keep him plodding along until November, when his efforts were rewarded with a narrow-margin win. Meanwhile, candidate Trump. who no one took too seriously in 2015/16, was wracking up lots of great campaign soundbites for the opposing team and running around showing the only sense he is able to, which is unbridled brashness, suggesting that the only way he might not win was if the election was rigged. The obvious featherbedding by the unscrupulous huckster was in stark contrast to the humility of Joe Biden.
Now we are in a reversal on both fronts. While Trump is uncharacteristically quiet (by his normal standards), he seems almost uncomfortable in not being the center of attacks by the media. The non-MAGA media is simply too busy attacking Joe Biden to worry about a few ordinary Trumpian faux pas. Meanwhile, Joe Biden is under constant attack from all sides. I saw a statistic this morning. It said over the last week, the New York Times has had no less than 132 articles and opinion pieces about Biden and his need to drop out of this race versus a mere 92 articles and opinion pieces about Trump and what he’s doing wrong in the moment. That’s quite a stark contrast to the press coverage of the last five years where Trump always occupied the center ring by a wide margin.
The last week has offered plenty of opportunity for everyone to consider the alternatives to Joe Biden for the Democratic ticket. Those alternatives range from the ridiculous to the practical at the ridiculous end of the spectrum is Michelle Obama. Few people think she has the appetite to run, but she is a tempting talking point because of her high favorability ratings. The list of the other most likely candidates include the ever present Pete Buttigieg, who has had lots of visibility for his secretary of transportation gig, most notably, all of the bridge and tunnel, infrastructure spending, including dealing with the Baltimore Harbor fiasco. The fact remains that war hero or not, Pete Buttigieg is still a married gay man, which seems the furthest bridge too far on the political landscape for this country at this moment. The next choice is our own governor Newsom, who looks to be right out of central casting as a potential candidate, but who those of us in California know, has his own controversial aspects to him. Elevated to prominence on the national stage by virtue of the crazy right’s attempt at her life and well-being is Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. Her name and face recognition is still quite low on national level so that would be a bit of a reach in only four months of campaigning. And that brings us to the obvious elephant in the room, Kamala Harris.
Kamala Harris occupies the practical and of the Democratic alternative spectrum. This case for practicality relates to two or three fundamental issues. The first is that all that campaign money and PAC money that has been locked up for Biden Harris would be available to her and none of the other candidates, where various tricky machinations would be needed for them to access those funds. Secondly, she is the inheritor of the Biden administration’s legacy of success over the last four years. While objectively that should be a strong positive, we live in a crazy world where not everyone is prepared to acknowledge the strength of the economy and the benefits derived from all of the legislation that the administration has pushed through. That still seems more positive than negative in Harris’ plus column. One of the subtle advantages in her favor is simply the fact that she sits in the presumptive next-in-line position, which means that the party has to deal with that issue in the same way they had to deal with Biden in 2016. And then there are what I would call the substantive political advantages that Kamala Harris owns. She has very much garnered more of the youth vote than anyone else in the Democratic Party. She is, of course, also a black woman, which carries a very substantive voting block that works in her favor. All of that suggests that whatever inertia exists against her could be turned in her favor more quickly than other candidates could reach an acceptable degree of recognizability.
In the days directly following the debate, Kamala Harris did not immediately spring from the lips of most people, but now that people have had time to consider the situation, she seems to be building the momentum needed to break through the confusion of the moment and be a viable takeout for Joe Biden should his current situation not improve in the coming days. The good news about this continuing confusion is that it has a relatively short half-life. The way the party system works this has to be resolved before going into the convention in August. It’s not clear that Joe Biden and his innermost circle are yet prepared to pull the ripcord but it has just been said that fully 1/3 of all Democrats believe he must go. I won’t say that I know what’s best, but I have now shifted gears yet again and hope for Joe’s sake that he concludes that he should hand the ball to Kamala and leave his legacy of being a marvelously effective transitional caretaker for our country from 2020 to 2024 intact. The way I see it if he runs and wins, there will remain the concern as to whether he is still fit to govern. If he runs and loses, he goes down in history as the goat who cost our country more than any of us care to imagine. Pull the plug, Joe.