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We have just seen the conclusion of a pow-wow between Xi Jianping of China and Vladimir Putin of Russia. In theory this should be no big deal since the dynamic duo have met together over 25 times (I heard a pundit say it was 40 times, but I can only verify 25 or so of those), and that’s a lot. That speaks to a number of things, not the least of which is how long these two autocrats have both been in power. It also speaks to the fact that the U.S. and the attendant Western Alliance is as powerful as it is such that these two monolithic partners need to convene regularly to reinforce one another in the face of the Western devil that the both seem to want to emulate, but both find troubling the way mere royals find themselves feeling in the presence of th king. Everyone wants to be king and Xi and Putin are no different. Except in each other’s presence they are forced to limit themselves to wanting the existing king dethroned and are prepared to leave open the issue of who would succeed him since that would lead to nothing good between them.
The question I feel inclined to ask is whether the U.S. is such a bad world leader for purposes of the prosperity of these two wannabes, or whether they just hate anyone else, especially the U.S. being dominant? Alpha males are supposed to hate other alpha males and seem prepared to band together with other aspiring alphas to unseat the existing alpha whenever possible. I think its fair to say that Putin has a very specific and pointed gripe against the U.S. right now because we are not letting him have his way with Ukraine. It would be like us deciding that we really did own Mexico and that it was none of anyone else’s business how we might treat Mexico in our efforts to bring them back into. We have imposed sanctions and treated one of the world powers like they were Cuba, Iran or North Korea. No one likes to get bullied and they feel we are bullying them even though we feel that we are just punishing a petulant bad boy. And of course, the mere fact that we think of them as someone needing a spanking is very upsetting to them all by itself. And to think someone would suggest that Putin (or Xi for that matter) were involved in trying to manipulate the U.S. election processes in 2016, 2020, 2022 or even 2024 is ridiculous, right?
So Xi goes to Moscow for a visit and bills it to the world as an effort to be a peacemaker on the Ukraine conflict and to take care of several other minor housekeeping issues between two large Eurasian Sovereigns that share a long common border. Over the three day visit, the topic of peacemaking in Ukraine didn’t even come up until day two, so there must have been lots of housekeeping. The number one issue was the photo opportunities to show the world that China supported Russia at this critical juncture of world disapproval and that Xi was willing to stand next to Putin despite this nasty business of the UN International Criminal Court putting a warrant out for Putin’s arrest as a war criminal in the Ukraine. Then there was the fact that China wanted to buy up all of Russia’s gas and oil at deep discount prices, which was agreed. The next day was probably about Putin trying like hell to bring up China giving or selling or somehow providing more weaponry to Russia to help it in its flailing war in Ukraine, but all to no apparent effect. That must have been a fun day in the Kremlin. And then the last day was all about the usual declarations from both sides about what a raging success this summit had been and what a great partnership exists between these big strong countries and leaders. The best comment on that all came from the White House, which declared Russia to be China’s junior partner. Whoever thought that one up certainly understand how to get under both Putin and Xi’s skin. Putin is made a piddler by the comment and Xi is made to wince that exactly what he didn’t want to portray to the world (not to say he would even count Russia as anything more than an associate and not even a junior partner) was being highlighted. Ouch!
I personally loved the imagery of the two world leaders sitting in gold-gilded chairs at the Kremlin for their photo opp. Putin is hunched over and sort of coiled up like a cobra with his pointy nose waiting to leap our towards Xi to grasp those missiles and munitions that he so badly needs to keep his honor intact on the western front. Meanwhile, I never realized how much Xi in profile has the look of a mongoose, cautiously keeping his distance from the cobra, being very calm and strategic about when exactly to parry or thrust against the cobra to put it in its place. Xi looks totally in control of the situation, which is what we and the entire rest of the world knows. Xi needs the cobra to keep being a cobra and to hiss at the rest of the world while it tries and keeps failing to kill Ukraine and is almost out of venom altogether. I used to think that Xi wanted Putin to distract the world so that he could make his move on Taiwan while no one was looking.
That was not an illogical conclusion based on the history of how the reigning world powers of east and west have operated (though last time it was Germany and Japan in the fray), trying to ropa-dope their opponents while the world decided it was too costly to stop them. But now I feel quite differently base on something I read that resonated with me. The better analysis is that Xi certainly wants the U.S. and Western Alliance further depleted and weakened by the Ukraine war. They want the U.S. to look like the anti-peacemaker to the rest of the world (meaning Asia, Africa, the Middle East and LatAm). That all serves Xi’s likely ambition to be the most powerful man on earth. Attacking Taiwan does exactly opposite of what he wants. Taiwan has been independent for much longer than Ukraine and it would upset much more of the world if it came under fire from China. So, I like the theory that Xi wants to keep everything with Russia and the rest of the world just like it is in a high-tension act so that he will NOT feel pressured by his own internal PRC hawks to take on Taiwan. Politics in China is not so different than politics in the U.S. or elsewhere though it probably happens somewhat more subtly since no one wants to get disappeared overnight.
China has more than its share of growing pains. It is a very big adolescent on the world stage, so big that it feels the need to act like an adult even though it has little experience at such things. There is no doubt that China wants to rule the world and no doubt that Xi thinks he can be the man to make that happen. Like all populations since man has walked this earth, China has reached some boundaries that are starting to feel uncomfortable to it. Life was wonderful when economic growth and urbanization of its population could drive prosperity as much as it has for seventy years. There are many people ( I heard it from a student in class just yesterday) who tend to underestimate China and its economic maturity. But by the same token, plenty of people who buy into the economic juggernaut that has been China, jump to the conclusion that they are prepared for world leadership and that is equally an overestimate of where China sits at the moment.
China still wants and needs countries like Russia and bad boys like Putin to lean on in global affairs to get it to the next level. I believe that Biden and the White House understand this and I imagine we are now trying to figure out how we can take one from column A and one from Column B and make a meal out of China before the mongoose turns his attention towards us.