This week I cannot recall how many articles I have seen with the headline about what the government shutdown means to me (or anyone reading the article). I know there are Republicans out there who do wish the government didn’t go into shutdown, but there are way too many that are busy finding it a good thing for apparently two reasons. The first is that it allows them, by virtue of the Senate voting process, to publish and parade behind headlines that say that this shutdown is being caused by Democrat obstinacy. Of course, in reality, we all know that with Republicans controlling both houses of Congress (by slim margins) as well as both the executive branch and the judiciary branch, this is all just their way of using their majority cudgel to beat the Democratic minority to a pulp and revel in their “might makes right” manner. But then there is the more worrisome, less-political, and more fundamental view that “anything that reduces government is a good thing” mentality that the right loves to champion. I understand the push and pull of politics and governance and the fact that there is a fine and judgmentally-drawn line between too much and too little government. But this is well beyond that sort of fine-tuning. This is an attempt by a large part of the Republican power structure to redefine the role of government in our society, and that causes them to feel that completely dismantling our system of government is an important first step. The evidence from 2025 alone is clear that this is a delicate process of not throwing out the baby with the bathwater being handled by a big-knuckled crowd of louts who literally do not care about the collateral damage they may be creating for many Americans in the process. They are indeed willfully throwing out many babies with the bathwater and putting together Truth Social AI-generated video clips to brag about what they are being allowed to do.
The inevitability of this move to anarchy by the most successful empire in modern history has slowly dawned on most of us by now. We have gone from, “oh, it won’t be that bad…” to “how the fuck did we come to this…” in what amounts to eight months. As Queen Elizabeth used to say in 1992, this is our Annus Horribilis. But I choose not to bother to read the articles that talk about how my planned visit to the Smithsonian will be impacted or why I won’t be able to climb El Capitan when I wanted to. That does not mean that I am oblivious to the impact of a government shutdown, but simply that I doubt the actual impact on me and mine will be that meaningful compared to the immediate impact on many others. However, it has caused me to ponder what the longer term impact of this move towards chaos in our country might mean.
Anarchy (the breakdown of governmental authority and social order) typically emerges through several pathways. The list of scenarios of state collapse starts with severe economic breakdown, which can delegitimize and paralyze government. This usually comes from things like hyperinflation making currency worthless, an inability to pay police, military, or civil servants, and loss of the ability to provide basic services. We’ve seen this happen recently in less significant places like Somalia in the 1990s and Venezuela since Chavez/Maduro. That might be happening as well in Milei’s Argentina, but for Trump/Bessent working so hard to use our foreign aid budget to prop up another kindred authoritarian leader. Of course, collapse can always come from defeat in war or some revolutionary movement that successfully topples the government but fails to establish a new order. This is where multiple factions are usually found fighting for control with no group strong enough to consolidate power (think Syria or even Palestine recently…though Israel has made sure that Palestine has economic collapse, war and anarchy working simultaneously for it). Governments can also go through a process of rapid delegitimization, where they lose all credibility and authority through widespread corruption, catastrophic policy failures and sometimes a loss of moral standing (think Epstein).
This breakdown process is a hotbed for violence because the struggle to maintain order usually comes with an inability to collect taxes and enforce laws so armed groups, militias, warlords, or criminal organizations fill the vacuum…sometimes under the guise of legitimate law enforcement gone rogue or unduly empowered, and sometimes by turning the military against the citizenry itself (at least the protesting citizenry). People have no choice but to rely on family, clan, or local strongmen for security rather than the state. When the state can’t maintain security and deep-seated ethnic, religious, or political divisions prevent new consensus, foreign powers supporting different factions become the norm, as everyone is jockeying for position in the new order…especially in a big sandbox like the United States. We are neither a countrified geography where remoteness or difficult terrain makes control harder (we are at the center of the modern world), nor are we historically a country with fragile political structures that might be more vulnerable. We are the dominant world power…or at least have been for some time.
But anarchy takes many forms. It is not always a complete and immediate breakdown where there is a total absence of any organized authority. There can be fragmented authority with multiple groups each controlling political territory. When I see Stephen Miller ordering attacks on Venezuelan vessels, Pete Hegseth calling all generals, Russell Vought being hailed on a Trump video meme as The Grimm Reaper, Pam Bondi and Kash Patel, over their heads, flailing at James Comey while desperately trying to keep the Epstein files from being released, while JD Vance works his sycophancy into a lather of presidential aspirations…all with Trump hiding inside the White House, tweeting inane and insulting/embarrassing commentary, I see totally fragmented authority of epic proportions. We are already in a failed state where government exists only nominally and thereby exercises little real control any more. We are in Chaos. The anarchists have prevailed. The only thing still working seems to be the construction crew busy still building Trump’s ballroom to replace the East Wing of the White House, a pet project that will move forward during the shutdown, come hell or high water.
What prevents or cures anarchy? Strong institutions, broad legitimacy, economic stability, and social cohesion make anarchy unlikely. Most governments facing crisis manage to either reform, be replaced by another government, or transition power without collapsing into anarchy. True anarchy (complete absence of order) is usually brief because humans naturally organize, with some new form of authority typically emerging, whether warlords, militias, tribal structures, or eventually a new government. The current government shutdown is unlikely to lead to full anarchy or state collapse, but it is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility. Public frustration with the Trump Administration is certainly building on all sides. The scrambling has already begun with visible pressure on Republican politicians to negotiate and awareness by the Republican Party that potential electoral consequences are imminent. So far, the critical functions of government are continuing, but even those are not going ahead swimmingly. Military and national security operations are somewhat halting. Social Security and Medicare payments are in doubt. Air traffic control and TSA are starting to show hairline cracks like in Newark and National. Law enforcement recruitment is strained (especially for the ICE Gestapo). Essential safety services are in peril (especially during national disasters). And the courts are getting jammed up and delayed more and more every day. The U.S. has weathered many shutdowns before (there have been over 20 since 1976) and state and local governments continue functioning normally for the time being, but fiscal pressures at that level are also mounting. The private sector continues operating because it is trained to show a brave outward face. The stock market is strong, but the history of that as a false indicator is ever-present and we all know that can turn on a dime. We used to be able to say that the legal and constitutional frameworks remains intact, but that is less and less assured. The natural self-correcting mechanisms (political and public push-back) have been severely muted by fear of reprisal. People like to say that this is all just political dysfunction, not a sign of impending state collapse…but are we so sure of that?
Its all a slippery slope and we are on it. I hate thinking that we are heading into a new Dark Ages…that seems so extreme. But the fall of Rome was a gradual collapse not a sudden event. Historians say Rome was less about political dysfunction and more a case of civilizational collapse. The signs of civilization collapse are things like environmental degradation (like climate change), financial instability (like Argentina is experiencing and Russia is suffering…and some would suggest our increasingly unsustainable debt levels portend), a governance breakdown (intentional or unintended), what is called elite overproduction (a disconnect between elites and general population), a loss of social cohesion (the breakdown of shared values and identity), mass migration (internal or external…not just Syria to Europe, but everyone to California or Florida as well), “Brain drain” of educated classes (fleeing Universities as they lose their academic freedom), infrastructure decay or permitted deterioration, population decline (or the fear of it), healthcare crisis (that’s long-since arrived), and a broad cultural decline. Every civilization from the Greeks to the Mayans have found themselves on this slippery slope and chaos management becomes the death cry.
We all know that humans are adaptable and flexible and have technology (especially AI now) on their side to ward off chaos, but serious challenges do exist and the one realistic thought is that the outcome of any crisis depends on choices we make sooner rather than later. The crucial question is whether our society can recognize the warning signs early enough and adapt before reaching irreversible tipping points. History shows both successes and failures in this regard so chaos management needs to be top-most in all our minds.