How are we supposed to feel about the U.S. bombing of Iran last night? For almost 50 years we and Iran have been at odds with one another. They have, indeed, called for the annihilation of both Israel and the U.S.. Thry have been at the center of much of the terrorism cloud that has blanketed the globe since 9/11 and before. Their fundamentalist way of life is anathema to our western liberal democratic ideology. Our new age economic warfare via sanctions against them have kept them at bay, but they have persevered nonetheless and given succor to our enemies via drone to Russia and oil yo China. The last thing we or any western power wanted was to see Iran get a nuclear capability, but then again, Pakistan, with all its political and cultural volatility has had such a nuclear capability since the 70s and we have been able to keep that threat contained. This is all so very confusing.
No one here or even in Israel much cared for the bellicose Bebe Netanyahu and yet he has now garnered majority support in his country and probably the U.S. (I haven’t seen a poll on that yet). Because of his precipitous and effective attacks on Iran that laid the groundwork for our bombing run. Under his command we have run the ball through the front line of Iran’s defenses with hardly any effort at all. We have, indeed one blow eliminated the conversation of how to negotiate the elimination of Iran’s nuclear program. Despite Donald Trump’s fervently stated position about entangling the U.S. in another Middle East war, he has done so and so far likely has more American support than not for the initiative. Americans like to rally around a winner and he may have just won this round. Obviously, the next step, the reaction by Iran, will determine just how solidly the American public is behind his move.
I learned of the attack from my daughter who called and asked one simple question…”what happens now, Dad?” For almost the first time in 8 months, I turned on the news to ponder the situation. When I called her back, I said what almost every American is saying today, “let’s wait and see what happens next.”
No one rational wants WWIII. Not even Donald Trump st his worst moments wants WWIII. For all the incompetence in the White House, in Pete Hegseth’s Pentagon and on General “Raizin” Caine’s front line, the U.S, military remains the strongest military force in the world and as we have all universally believed since WWII, that is a blanket for global peace that is unmatched, regardless of the many minor missteps along the way.
But are we safer today than we were at the start of the year? That would be a hard notions to stand behind. We continue to allow Russia to run roughshod over Ukraine and by extension, Europe. We have not reined in Netanyahu on Gaza, but actually helped justify his actions as a first step towards taming the Iranian beast. We are at odds with China, who has now had its oil supplies threatened. And, we have made our own vulgar noises about regional hegemony vis-a-vis Greenland, Canada and Panama. Has all this bravado made us safer? That feels highly questionable, especially in a world where we are reducing human rights, due process and the rule of law. It seems more like we are sponsoring a return to the rule of the jungle. And yet, there is one less nuclear actor on the horizon.
We all grew up thinking that the nuclear threat was the existential threat of our era. We have, as a world, managed to keep our nuclear hands in our pockets. But then again, warfare has taken some very different and challenging turns. We have spawned an era of terrorism which has more defined our sense of security for 25 years than the nuclear cloud has. Now we see in Ukraine that drones have severely undercut bigger-scale military equipment. It may be hard to accurately monitor uranium enrichment programs, but it’s impossible to monitor IED and drone production and that may be the biggest threats we as humans face in our daily lives….wherever we live. And, I don’t know about you, but I feel more likely to be arrested and shipped to some penal colony today for what I think and say than I ever have in my life. And last, but hardly least, my economic well-being is feeling far more sketchy as the global trade war keeps getting worse. Bombing Iran has certainly made that all worse not better.
So, I think it’s fair to suggest that I am betwixt and between on this recent turn of events. No one likes the Iranian regime and no one wants them to have nuclear capabilities. But is bitch slapping a bully really a good idea for the stability of the playground? Maybe yes, but probably no. It may cos the bully for the moment, but whatever internal transformation was underway that might have led to a regime change for the better, just got out on ice. There is simply a newer, bigger bully on the jungle gym. The ways and means to target such a bully all exist and now every kid on the playground is thinking about how to protect himself rather than how to be a member of a more productive collective. Alliances are in flux and nationalism is rampant. None of this moves the world to a more peaceful place, despite the comfort Israel might feel in the moment.
What I know for sure this Sunday morning is that I have to have my TV retuned to CNN and MSNBC and that this household is now at DEFCON 2.