Atlantic and Pacific
I am drawn to the differences between East and West. I lived most of my adult life in the East and I have chosen to live the rest of my life in the West. The Egyptians built their cities for commerce and living on the East bank of the Nile and they built their monuments and mausoleums for their passage into death on the West side of the Nile. The sun also rises in the East and never forgets to set in the West. The magazines that seem to represent this reality in American life are the Atlantic and Sunset. I have never subscribed to the Atlantic but have read many of its articles and admire its editorial prowess. I do subscribe to Sunset and admire its focus on lifestyle ranging from where to go for a long weekend getaway to the beauty of gardens. In many ways these two magazines define my life’s existence. And as much as I want to live in the world of Sunset, I am regularly drawn back to the Atlantic when I see an article that strikes a nerve. That happened this morning so here goes.
The article is titled THE 8 DYNAMICS THAT WILL SHAPE THE ELECTION and it was written by David A. Graham, a staff writer for the Atlantic. I feel the pressing need to comment on these 8 dynamics since they will define life in my country for at least the rest of 2024 if not the next 4+ years.
1. Does Biden Fall? This is all about age and the fact that Joe Biden at 81 walks with a stiffness that those of us who are aging can relate to, but which we don’t like to see in a leader. I have talked about aging in a recent story and have defined the things that trouble me more than simple memory loss or other possible debilitations of aging in our leadership. My conclusion is that for good men and women, aging translates into more and not less empathy. A world of 8 billion demands high empathy in addition to all the other competencies required to lead the nation. Not so good men and women grow older with increasing fear rather than greater empathy and that is what scares me most about Donald Trump and those who follow his lead. One of our greatest leaders was FDR and he fell physically all the time and could not stand for much of his presidency of twelve years. He was strong enough to lead us to victory in WWII and empathetic enough to care about the downtrodden and still he put us on sound footing for a half century of prosperity. I have stopped worrying about Biden’s age and worry more about Trump’s character.
2. Trump’s High Floor and Low Ceiling. The battle for the presidency is waged between 40 and 49 in terms of the percentage of the electorate that will side with either Biden or Trump. Trump seems capped at 46% but also seems unlikely to drop below 40% no matter what he does or says. The point is that this will undoubtedly be a game of inches in the final analysis and that makes it a nail-biter no matter what. The most hopeful aspect of all the polling as I see it is epitomized in what has just happened in the Maryland primary, where Angela Alsobrooks just beat David Trone for the privilege of running against ex-governor Larry Hogan who will be on the Republican ticket. What give me great hope is that Trone spent $60 million of his own money to win the election and was leading by 2 points in the polls on Election Day. And yet, Alsobrooks won handily by 12 points. What this says to me is that besides polls being very bad predictors in elections is that truth and virtue can, indeed, shine through and guide the electorate at the moment of truth. My view is less about Alsobrooks and Trone and more about a thinking, feeling electorate.
3. Whither, or Wither, the Economy? We all know how good the economy is and what an astounding run we have had during the Biden term. But we also know how few Americans can relate to the economic success suggested by Bidenomics. I have some measure of hope that the reality of our improved economic situation and the strength of Keynesian economics and bottom-up growth will sink in during these last six months before the election. I’m sure I will only be partially fulfilled in this hope because people just don’t seem willing to connect their economic reality to a good story and rather seem more prone to think of all that they do not have filling their glass. I believe the economy and its indicators will be a big topic and that some of that will sink in enough to remind people of how badly we have all faired during most Republican regimes.
4. These Men and Women Are Nihilists. The world will always have people dedicated to chaos because they have been unable to find prosperity within whatever system is underlying their lives. I have never understood and even less appreciated those with negative and nihilistic outlooks. I wish I could give them all a jolt of serotonin and force them to realize how good they have it in the grand scheme of things. In many ways, this dynamics may be the defining dynamic of this whole election cycle. I cannot imagine anyone thinking that their lives will be better under Trump than under Biden. I certainly cannot fathom anyone thinking the nation as a whole will be better with Trump than Biden given Trump’s tendency towards revenge and venality and Biden’s proven embrace of all Americans. But Nihilism is a very real thing and it seems to move in waves. We are clearly at a crest in that wave at his moment in our history and I just hope it does not swamp us altogether.
5. Biden’s Status-Quo Problem. People are strange with regard to change. They all say they want it and yet they all fear it. Centrism always sounds like a wise idea and yet we are all like Woody Allen’s shark…if we are not moving forward we find ourselves dead in the water. Centrism feels safe, but it also lacks dynamism and a sense that we are making progress. Even among non-nihilists there is some measure of concern that Biden represents too much of the status quo, but that is wrong. The status quo in America since 1981 has been a top-down economy that serves the rich and has promoted the biggest and most dangerous disequilibrium in wealth in the history of our country. I like to think that the dynamism of Biden is about finding the steady and stable central path that puts us back on the prosperity path of consumerism and Middle Class virtues and values by driving bottom-up growth.
6. Judgment Day. We are all transfixed by the trials of Donald Trump. They seem far more important than any mere adjudication or verdict, much less sentence. I am one who believes that the conviction of the crimes of Donald Trump are critical to the soul of America. He needs to be called out for all the wrong he has perpetrated and all the tricks he has used to postpone this reckoning. I am also a believer that that will matter to people in the ballot box. It should. What I care far less about is the sentencing. I would settle today for him to come off the ticket and off the screen of American life. Let him live out his days in comfort for all I care. I am not a vengeful person. I just want it acknowledged by the American electorate that integrity and character matter.
7. The Return of Split Tickets? We cannot forget that the dysfunction of Congress has been a large part of the problem we have suffered in recent years. Yes, it matters most who wins the presidency because the power of that position is the basis for the concern I have about Trump and what he will do to this country (note I did not say “for” this country). But we have all seen that the best of presidents (at least ones that choose to play by the rules) cannot do an effective job in the absence of a conducive Congress. Both the Senate and the House of Representatives matter. We have all had a crash course in civics these past years and know much better what controlling either house means, especially when taken to extremes. Everyone feels certain the House is coming the way of Democrats and yet fears that Democrats may lose the Senate. I am hopeful that we will have at least two years of a full Democratic Congress so that we can push past these troubled and divisive times as I know Biden will do for us.
8. The Third-Party Factor. Nonsense, is all I can say. Our system is not designed for coalition government and thus there is nothing good about the third party factor. All it serves to do is throw a wild card into the game and it never seems to do any good to the general thinking of the public. I do not hope for RFK Jr. to pull from Trump any more than for him to pull from Biden. What I wish is that he would just go away.
I don’t know if the Atlantic has it right that these are the only serious dynamics that affect the election. I can certainly think of another one, reproductively rights, which seems pretty front and center in people’s minds. Nonetheless, I appreciate my thinking being taken back to the Atlantic and can only hope that soon my thinking will be able to revert to reading things in Sunset. Such is the balance between Atlantic and Pacific in my life.