Approaching Singularity

Approaching Singularity

Recently I was sent a book by a colleague who was surprised that I had not read Ray Kurzweil and his two books called The Singularity is Near and the more recent The Singularity is Nearer. Kurzweil is both an inventor and a futurist who has become largely acclaimed as the guru of AI prognostication. The term “singularity” is taken from math and physics and means that special point in a mathematical function or physics equation where the only answer is infinity. From a practical perspective, it means that point (like at the center of a black hole) where the convergence (in this case, of technology) becomes uncontrollable and irreversible and the consequences of the future are unforeseeable. That’s pretty big. Kurzweil wrote his “Near” book in 2005 and has just published his “Nearer” version. I rarely read books any more. I listen to Audible books instead. But when this book came in an Amazon box, I opened it and sat down and read it over less than a day. To be totally honest, the book is filled with a lot of empirical evidence to support Kurzweil’s thesis. Some is reminiscent of Hans Rosling’s Factfulness in that it describes very methodically why life on earth for humans has become exponentially better and continues to accelerate in that positive direction. He goes on to describe the advancements in human health that are driving our species to immortality. It is the combination of this movement to immortality and this technological vortex we are approaching (especially through AI) that creates this singularity where pretty much everything we know comes to a head and creates an entirely new context for the world.

This is heady stuff to say the least. Kurzweil starts by reminding us of his delineation of the six epochs of the universe. The first was the laws of physics and chemistry that came about several hundred million years after the Big Bang. The delicate balance of the universe (molecularly speaking) and its elements is described as highly unlikely and, assuming it occurred randomly, specifically unique. The Second Epoch is even more unlikely in that it involves the special combination of complex molecules into organisms that constitute life as we know it…and all that has evolved from that. The Third Epoch was when these organisms formed brains that allowed for the storage and processing of information. This naturally led to the Fourth Epoch wherein those brains and their processing ability (along with a few simple evolutionary advantages like opposable thumbs) allowed for the translation of thoughts into actions. Kurzweil highlights the slow and steady growth of our cognitive abilities leading eventually to our creating external forms of information storage and processing to supplement our brains. That capability has produced an inorganic acceleration that has these machines growing their capabilities far faster than we humans can grow ours. This ultimately digitized processing capability was first captured in Moore’s Law suggesting that it would double every 18 months. We now recognize that growth pattern as being a doubling every 16 months (was that just the roughness of Moore’s estimate or evidence of even further acceleration?). We seem to be standing at this moment in the history of the Universe, on the precipice of the Fifth Epoch (called by others the Fifth Industrial Revolution) where there will be a merging of human biological consciousness and digital technology in one massive Vulcan brain meld.

Supposedly, this is where the singularity occurs and where this combination of our brains with AI will allow for such incredibly advanced and complex developments that our simple pea brains that exist today cannot fully comprehend the enormity of that potential. I guess this is that moment from 2001: A Space Odyssey where you see the giant embryo floating in space or when Jody Foster in Contact lands on the cosmic beach and talks to her long-dead Dad. It’s a little hard for my particular pea brain to differentiate this Fifth Epoch from the Sixth Epoch where intelligence (I guess both biological and digital) spreads throughout the Universe, turning ordinary matter into what Kurzweil describes as “computronium”, which means matter that can support computation.

I have never been a particularly religious person, but I do sort of understand that religion was a necessity for man because when he came up against things he could not understand, he needed to convert to another reality to make sense of it. That alternative reality is belief and it is a safe-haven for those who cannot compute the complexities that confront them. How far does space extend? To Heaven. Who occupies Heaven? God. Where do we go when we die? Heaven. How do we get to Heaven? Aha! Someone snuck back into earthly reality and said we get to Heaven by being a good person while here on earth. Seems more self-serving than universally accurate, but it also makes a certain amount of sense. And the key to it all is faith and belief.

There is a lot happening in the world right now that makes me think that Kurzweil is onto something and that it might be the most profound thing we humans have ever faced. The world’s population is quickly approaching its pinnacle of an estimated 10 billion souls. We can demographically and mathematically estimate that the given fertility rates can very reliably predict that moment when it peaks…and that is not so distant. Ecologically, we are also reaching some sort of vortex with Global Warming and the resultant Global Climate Change. It is not so accidental that the peaking of human population and the peaking of human technological capabilities have coincided with the peaking of the planet’s ability to support life as we know it. Additionally, it is not so hard to imagine that some people are more able to see this convergence and this coming singularity just like there have always been people who are smarter and more prescient (we all wish that all men/women are created equally, but the truth is that some are just slightly ahead on the evolutionary spectrum, at least by a little cognitive ability). The rest of us in the great unwashed mass of humanity are forced to turn to something other than our cognitive abilities to come to grips with the world.

Isn’t that what is happening right now? Don’t we see a large minority (I refuse to default to thinking its a majority) that have lost the ability to grasp the reality of the world as it lurches forward? Even our smartphones are not smart enough to allow us all to get our arms around it (even with the “help” of social media). We are forced into the realm of alternate reality and we should understand that that becomes the province of faith and belief…and yes, zealotry. Isn’t that what we are seeing in the world of MAGA? Aren’t these people who are scared of what they cannot understand and a future they cannot intercept comfortably? DOes that account for the rush to Christian Nationalism? But religion in the traditional sense is not giving them answers, so maybe they have to form their own type of religion and MAGA may just be that. It makes some sense to me since I cannot fathom it otherwise.

In past times of dramatic change, we always found solutions eventually. The French Revolution led to a new salvation called democracy, which just happened to have a new place for it to take root (America). This solved many of the problems of the moment for the masses. Then there was the great slavery gambit that caused the next turning and after a bloody battle or two, things calmed down enough to allow life to go on. In the 1930’s, after great global economic dislocation, the easy solutions led to abuses that were intolerable to enough people that a great World War ensued and we found a renewed liberal democratic order that advanced prosperity for most of the world at a tremendous pace. Now a building head of steam in population, ecological disruption (which was from fueling our prosperity), and especially information technology has led us to this latest singularity. Maybe this powerful vortex of knowledge (biological and digital) will encapsulate solutions to all our dilemmas. Maybe the fact that the tech titans are desperately trying to control the political landscape is for our own ultimate good (though it sure doesn’t feel like it). Whatever the case, Kurzweil is now very clear in his prediction that the moment of truth will come in 2029, a mere five years hence. I want very much to feel good about having a front row seat for the Apocolypse and that it will once again be a false prophecy of doom. The greatest strength we humans have is our survival instinct. Therein lies our greatest hope for salvation. I suggest you read Kurzweil and get up to speed (at least in the slow lane with me) and then get your popcorn and join me in looking forward to the approaching singularity.