A Prelude to War
Frank Capra won an Academy Award in 1942 for his production of his Office of War Information documentary. It was used first to pump up the soldiers in the armed forces that were heading into the war effort after the attack at Pearl Harbor. And then it was shown widely to the American people so as to get everyone on the same page about exactly why we as Americans were doing the right thing in going against the prevailing unease about foreign entanglements and helping people and nations that were not able to defend themselves adequately in the face of the Axis powers of Germany, Japan and Italy. It is hard not to think that this documentary, called A Prelude to War, was a biased piece of pro-American propaganda, but as they say, the needs of the Army must be served in the face of a new wartime effort. The only thing worse than choosing to go to war is perhaps going to war half-heartedly.
I have written a month ago about my concerns about an impending WWIII predicated on the Ukraine conflict. In that piece I spoke of the new Axis of Evil as the Russia, Iran, China coalition with the rest of the developed free world standing strong and together. It is said in life that when the elephants are dancing, the monkeys should stay in the trees. That seems to be the advice being taken quite actively by the emerging markets of the world, who might be called the monkeys in this scenario (no derogatory intention). We live in a complex world where China has been currying favor all around the world with its Belt and Road Initiative. The U.S., in its post-Imperialistic wisdom, is doing its best to remain isolationist (a strong Trumpian and thus Republican preference) and even the Democrats are trying to give reassurances to its allies that we stand strongly with them in any defense efforts they require, yet without direct intervention of American troops. This is a full-on repeat of the state of American foreign policy in 1941 as we watched Imperial Japan invading Manchuria and oppressing the Chinese and the Third Reich of Germany pushing through Poland and into The Soviet Union under the banner of Operation Barbarossa. Both initiatives can be said to have started the World War in their respective theaters and both were manifest destiny expansions of relatively small, but economically powerful countries in their drive to conquer, dominate and either enslave or eradicate the “inferior” peoples of those lands.
Manifest Destiny was a century-old American concept implying the sacred right and duty of Christian Americans to conquer their continent in order to spread the word of capitalism and democracy (thought at the time to be inextricably linked). We treat that part of our history with a degree of benign neglect (or at least I did growing up and I don’t recall much outrage until the Wounded Knee Massacre in 1973). But in 1941 we were greatly offended…at last…by the manifest destiny of Germany and Japan as they spread their imperialistic wings east and west respectively and eventually in concert. We were offended enough to engage in the same sort of propaganda effort that fascists pursued all along, using the medium of a documentary film to explain exactly why the global actions of our antagonists were deserving of a violent and forceful retaliation.
My last missive about WWIII was focused on the interpretations of the moves of the Russian state as directed by Vladimir Putin, President for 22 years now (including the puppet term of Medvedev). Today it has been widely reported that Xi Jinping has been granted his third five-year term with no term limits left to interfere with his continuous reign as the autocratic paramount leader of the Peoples’ Republic of China. It makes the Supreme Leader of Iran, who serves for a maximum of two four-year terms, positively democratic by contrast. The truth, of course, is that all three of these aligned Axis powers are autocratic to the core. Iran is feared for its radical extremism and its likely imminent acquisition of nuclear capability. Russia is feared for its positioning against the back door of Europe and its stoic decades of nuclear threat and arms proliferation. But China is feared because of its economic and population scale and its truly totalitarian leanings that are already hammering wannabe investors in its future potential. Today’s Beijing stock market rout on the news of Xi’s third term ascendancy combined with Beijing’s gradual but consistent squeezing of Hong Kong and any company (Jack Ma and Alibaba included) that dares to suggest that commercial strength is anything greater than serving in the good graces of the central party purposes of Beijing.
It is China that should worry us all. The common theme of Russia, Iran and China is their unabashed attempts to turn back the clock on Union dissolution, Christian-focused capitalism, and the anachronism of cultural revolution gone too far. If that sounds familiar to us here in the United States, or in Europe for that matter, it is because the Republican-led nationalism and the Tory Brexit floundering are thinly veiled attempts to turn the clock back in similar manner. We have lived with an isolated Iran for forty years to no ill effects other than our efforts to keep them non-nuclear. The Iranian people (especially the women) seem about at the end of their fundamentalist rope with life in the cave that has become Iranian existence. We are seeing our indirect support through the dedicated efforts of independent Ukraine unravel the myth of Russian military might. Meanwhile the largely westernized and capitalistic Russian population has run for the borders as conscription has put a fine point on their lack of national pride as desired by Putin. But that still leaves China, and where Iranian and Russian autocracy still struggles with dissent, Chinese totalitarianism is pretty damn total with dissent squashed like a PRC tank can squash a lone student protestor in Tiananmen Square.
I have now fielded queries from several friends and ex-students who are all asking my opinion of whether I see WWIII truly on the horizon. Since such things as World Wars are merely convenient lexicon of history, I say that the defining characteristic of being in a World War of any denomination is the degree to which thinking people spend their time wondering if we are in it. Therefore, I suspect that we are effectively in a prelude to war, as much for the thinking underway in the various right-leaning nationalistic chambers of this and any other countries (Brazil, Italy, etc.) that are slip-sliding away in that direction. All of the elements that presented themselves in 1941 are upon us. We have vast numbers of racist and divisive group thinkers that want things that demographics have rendered beyond their reach. Dehumanization runs rampant on every continent as the press of 8 billion souls makes humanity more a liability than an asset. Capitalism is in desperate need of being saved from the very capitalists that feed on it. And worst of all, there is a growing view, even among thinking people, that governance is too cumbersome under collective democratic rule and that only authoritarianism and extreme self-interest can make the dramatic backward clock-turning possible (even though it cannot and will not).
I want badly to be wrong about all of this, but wishing is unlikely to make it so unless and until people feel the sting of the lash that they think will somehow be their salvation. That will come as sure as history shows it will be. Next week and the midterm elections will tell us all (here and around the globe) if it will come easily and quickly or slowly and painfully. Either way, it will inevitably come because the clock knows no direction but to sooner of later move forward.