A Nice Week Ahead
I read that Spring has come early all across the country, but that is deemed a mixed blessing at best. This was supposed to be a particularly harsh El Niño winter, but at least here in Southern California, that feels like it barely materialized. It’s always nice when the groundhog doesn’t see his shadow and we get an early Spring, but I should note that Groundhog Day was just over six weeks ago, so I’m not so sure this qualifies as an early Spring. Nevertheless, those parts of the country where there is a noticeably warmer situation than normal are being warned by climatologists that this is yet another indicator that the planet is warming at an alarming rate and that we are probably in for another brutally hot summer here in North America. It’s not like we need more warnings about that, nature has done a good enough job convincing the naysayers that global warning is a real phenomenon, whether they think it is the result of human abuse of the natural environment or just another millennial cycle in process. If that is not enough to convince us, the insurance industry is doing a marvelous job of spreading the word in the harshest of ways, by raising homeowner property insurance premiums or simply making the product unavailable to certain homeowners.
I have detailed my personal travails with regard to my homeowners insurance and for the the moment I am on high deductible hold as my current policy takes me through this year. I have every reason to expect that my rates are going to continue to rise since they have done so quite briskly for three years in a row. I have also become a sort of local repository of knowledge about the issue as one of my neighbors has characterized me to another who is going through the renewal process right now. What I can see is that long term insurance relationships and no-claim history have lost all currency. And if you do have a history of claims you are likely to just get the policy rug pulled out from underneath you. I currently have two neighbors who have significant water leak damage claims underway and the first of them has already been notified that their policy will not be renewed. The other is well aware of the pending problem, but is just closing his eyes and hoping for the best. I will argue that property and casualty insurance as a product got redefined a few decades ago by no one less than Warren Buffett, who began the trend of weighing into markets when the rates on line were attractive and exiting when they were unfavorable by his estimation. He was not a believer in the jockey theory of insurance coverage where you ride a race on whatever nag is offered, but rather believed that the market was most intelligently approached by jumping in and out as market rates dictated. Interestingly enough, this is the exact opposite of his buy and hold investment strategy.
That all implies that homeowners insurance may be going through the same adjustment, which is to say, companies are jumping out of certain perceived high-risk markets based on things like coastal storm surge on the East and Gulf coasts, wildfires in the West and stronger-than-normal tornado and derecho storms in the Midwest. As the rates go up, which they certainly are doing, these same companies may choose to jump back in, but that assumes they can go up enough to be attractive and that homeowners can afford them. Between taxes, insurance and maintenance, I now pay something like 2.5% of the value of the property. That’s closer to 5% of the cost basis of the house, which starts to feel like a significant carrying cost since most of us think less about what our homes are worth in the market and more about the costs we entered into the social contract of our housing arrangement. I will enjoy my summer and try not to think about what’s ahead of me in the fall when renewal season rolls around again.
But all of that is just noise when I look outside and see blue skies and the sun shining. There is literally not a cloud in the sky this morning and the midday temperatures for the whole of this coming week is projected to be in the low 70s, which is right where I like it. I spent much of last week planning out our various upcoming travels and have spreadsheets and reservations for most of them already in the can, as they say. That was a fine activity to occupy me when the weather was on-gain-off-again. This week’s forecast implies a week of gardening since it is that time of year when the garden needs some direction and my expert witness docket is wide open as I await the start of my next case. I am still getting used to being my own man with regard to my schedule and I regularly have to fend off minor panic at not having enough that must be done. Taking a deep breath and reminding myself of how fortunate I am to be in this situation helps, but what helps more is to go to the gym and work up a light sweat and then going about some garden task that leaves me relatively spent by mid-afternoon. If I can get that program going in the right direction on any given day, I have more or less succeeded in my retirement plan.
When I think about my garden this spring, I think I have learned that thinning out certain areas that look quite lush, but are really more overgrown than not, should be a part of my regular garden program. I’ve done that with some success in the front where I have added the three of four new trees last season and on the side of the driveway where I lost the large candelabra euphorbia that occupied my time in the winter. I think I need to go out and find some similar spots that can benefit from some selective pruning and open things up. There’s a part of me that hates to do that because the diversity of the garden makes the layering of different varieties a nice feature, and seeing that layering cross the line into overcrowding is a difficult call. But then again, better to get out ahead of it since in another month these thickets will be prone to rattlesnakes waking up for the season and that will make the bushwhacking a much more tricky proposition.
I also have a visit to Planter’s Paradise to buy some large and colorful pots to replace some winter damage and to continue my program of creating a panoply of features to my garden that add visual interest. Colorful pots are always a welcome visual treat that goes hand in hand with the thinning out process I have planned.
Another Spring activity that deserves attention is getting back on the motorcycle and exploring some of the surrounding roads that I have yet to discover. I took a short ride yesterday and was reminded of how pleasing the feeling of cruising this area can be. I’m sure if I had a local riding buddy or two I would go out more, so I have to force myself to swap out the shorts and Olukai’s for the Duluth Firehose pants riding boots and throw a leg over, as they say.
It’s nice to have options and its even nicer to have the time to pursue them. I have to keep reminding my Type A psyche of that. It gets easier and easier the more I fall in love with this hilltop and its surrounding beautiful scenery. It’s going to be a nice week ahead.